Astral Codex Ten Podcast

Mantic Monday: Groundhog Day

<h2 id= "having-your-own-government-try-to-destroy-you-is-at-least-temporarily-good-for-business"> Having Your Own Government Try To Destroy You Is (At Least Temporarily) Good For Business</h2> <p>On Friday, the Pentagon declared AI company Anthropic a "supply chain risk", …

Apr 02, 2026 · 30m

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"All Lawful Use": Much More Than You Wanted To Know

<p>Last Friday, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth declared AI company Anthropic a "<a href= "https://x.com/SecWar/status/2027507717469049070">supply chain risk</a>", the first time this designation has ever been applied to a US company. …

Apr 02, 2026 · 19m

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Next-Token Predictor Is An AI's Job, Not Its Species

<p>I.</p> <p>In The Argument, <a href= "https://www.theargumentmag.com/p/when-technically-true-becomes-actually"> Kelsey Piper gives a good description</a> of the ways that AIs are more than just "next-token predictors" or "stochastic parrots" - for example, …

Apr 02, 2026 · 16m

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The Pentagon Threatens Anthropic

<header class="mb-8 space-y-4 border-b border-gray-300 pb-8"> </header> <div id="post-content" class="prose max-w-none"> <div> <p>Here's my understanding of <a href= "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjrq1vwe73po">the situation</a>:</p> <p>Anthropic signed a contract with the Pentagon last summer. It …

Mar 14, 2026 · 23m

Trancric

Malicious Streetlight Effects Vs. "Directional Correctness" - A Semi-Non-Apology

<p>Malicious <a href= "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streetlight_effect">streetlights</a> are an evil trick from Dark Data Journalism. Some annoying enemy has a valid complaint. So you use FACTS and LOGIC to prove that something similar-sounding-but-slightly-different …

Mar 14, 2026 · 5m

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Book Review Contest Rules 2026

<p>It's that time again. Even numbered years are book reviews, odd-numbered years are non-book reviews, so you're limited to books for now.</p> <p>Write a review of a book. There's no …

Mar 14, 2026 · 3m

Trancric

Crime As Proxy For Disorder

<p>The problem: people hate crime and think it's going up. But actually, crime <a href= "https://blog.outlandish.claims/p/higher-crime-areas-are-safer">barely affects most people</a> and is <a href= "https://readscottalexander.com/posts/acx-record-low-crime-rates-are-real-not"> historically low</a>. So what's going on?</p> …

Mar 14, 2026 · 17m

Trancric

Record Low Crime Rates Are Real, Not Just Reporting Bias Or Improved Medical Care

<p>Last year, the US may have recorded the lowest murder rate in its 250 year history. Other crimes have poorer historical data, but are at least at ~50 year lows.</p> …

Mar 14, 2026 · 16m

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What Happened With Bio Anchors?

<p>[Original post: <a href= "https://readscottalexander.com/posts/acx-biological-anchors-a-trick-that-might"> Biological Anchors: A Trick That Might Or Might Not Work</a>]</p> <p>I.</p> <p>Ajeya Cotra's <a href= "https://drive.google.com/drive/u/0/folders/15ArhEPZSTYU8f012bs6ehPS6-xmhtBPP"> Biological Anchors</a> report was the landmark AI timelines forecast …

Mar 10, 2026 · 24m

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Political Backflow From Europe

<p>The European discourse can be - for lack of a better term - America-brained. We hear stories of Black Lives Matter marches in countries without significant black populations, or defendants …

Mar 10, 2026 · 11m

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Links For February 2026

<p>[I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. …

Mar 10, 2026 · 48m

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Moltbook: After The First Weekend

<p>[previous post: <a href= "https://readscottalexander.com/posts/acx-best-of-moltbook">Best Of Moltbook</a>]</p> <p>From the human side of the discussion:</p> <p>As the AIs would say, "You've cut right to the heart of this issue". What's the …

Mar 03, 2026 · 2h 0m

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Best Of Moltbook

<p><a href="https://www.moltbook.com">Moltbook</a> is "a social network for AI agents", although "humans [are] welcome to observe".</p> <p>The backstory: a few months ago, Anthropic released Claude Code, an exceptionally productive programming agent. …

Feb 18, 2026 · 53m

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Slightly Against The "Other People's Money" Argument Against Aid

<p>In the comments to last year's USAID post, Fabian <a href= "https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/contra-mr-on-charity-regrants/comment/119589529"> said</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>While i am happy for the existence of charity organisations, i don't get why people instead …

Feb 18, 2026 · 18m

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Highlights From The Comments On Scott Adams

<p>[original post: <a href= "https://readscottalexander.com/posts/acx-the-dilbert-afterlife">The Dilbert Afterlife</a>]</p> <p>Table of Contents:</p> <p>1: Should I Have Written This At All?<br /> 2: Was I Unfair To Adams?<br /> 3: Comments On The …

Feb 10, 2026 · 50m

Trancric

The Dilbert Afterlife

<p>Thanks to everyone who sent in condolences on my recent death from prostate cancer at age 68, but that was Scott Adams. I (Scott Alexander) am still alive<sup><a id="footnote-anchor-1-184503512" href= …

Feb 04, 2026 · 1h 10m

Trancric

Mantic Monday: The Monkey's Paw Curls

<h2 id="the-monkeys-paw-curls">The Monkey's Paw Curls</h2> <p>Isn't "may you get exactly what you asked for" one of those ancient Chinese curses?</p> <p>Since we last spoke, prediction markets have gone to the …

Jan 30, 2026 · 35m

Trancric

SOTA On Bay Area House Party

<p>[previously in series: <a href= "https://readscottalexander.com/posts/acx-every-bay-area-house-party"> 1</a>, <a href= "https://readscottalexander.com/posts/acx-another-bay-area-house-party"> 2</a>, <a href= "https://readscottalexander.com/posts/acx-even-more-bay-area-house-party"> 3</a>, <a href= "https://readscottalexander.com/posts/acx-bride-of-bay-area-house-party"> 4</a>, <a href= "https://readscottalexander.com/posts/acx-son-of-bride-of-bay-area-house-party"> 5</a>, <a href= "https://readscottalexander.com/posts/acx-ye-olde-bay-area-house-party"> 6</a>, <a href= "https://readscottalexander.com/posts/acx-press-any-key-for-bay-area-house"> …

Jan 30, 2026 · 20m

Trancric

The Permanent Emergency

<p>One morning around 6, the police banged on our door. "OPEN UP!" they shouted, the way police shout when they definitely have an alternative in mind for if you won't.</p> …

Jan 30, 2026 · 15m

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Highlights From The Comments On Boomers

<p>[original post: <a href= "https://readscottalexander.com/posts/acx-against-against-boomers">Against Against Boomers</a>]</p> <p>Before getting started:</p> <p>First, I wish I'd been more careful to differentiate the following claims:</p> <ol> <li>Boomers had it much easier than later …

Jan 23, 2026 · 51m

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You Have Only X Years To Escape Permanent Moon Ownership

<p>If you're not familiar with "X years to escape the permanent underclass", see <a href= "https://www.newyorker.com/culture/infinite-scroll/will-ai-trap-you-in-the-permanent-underclass"> the New Yorker here</a>, or the <a href= "https://www.nosetgauge.com/p/capital-agi-and-human-ambition">Laine</a>, <a href= "https://philosophybear.substack.com/p/capitalist-strategy-when-capital"> Bear</a>, and …

Jan 23, 2026 · 6m

Trancric

Highlights From The Comments On Vibecession

<p>[Original post: <a href= "https://readscottalexander.com/posts/acx-vibecession-much-more-than-you-wanted"> Vibecession - Much More Than You Wanted To Know</a>]</p> <p>Table of Contents</p> <p>1: When was the vibecession?<br /> 2: Is the vibecession just sublimating cultural …

Jan 10, 2026 · 55m

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ACX/Metaculus Prediction Contest 2026

<div id="post-content" class="prose max-w-none"> <div> <p><a href="https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/ACX2026/">This year's prediction contest</a> is live on Metaculus. They write:</p> <blockquote> <p>This year's contest draws directly from that community, with all questions suggested by …

Jan 10, 2026 · 1m

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