The Wisdom of Crowds

Don and Tom start with the classic “jelly beans in a jar” experiment to explain the wisdom of crowds and why large groups often produce surprisingly accurate predictions. That idea leads to a discussion of modern prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, which sometimes outperform professional economists when forecasting things like GDP, inflation, or Federal Reserve decisions. But the hosts emphasize that these predictions ultimately don’t matter to investors, pointing instead to the long-term evidence that active fund managers consistently …