Eemods 19.5 15_30

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Well, good morning,

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everyone.

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I'll be having this presentation,

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moderating.

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We'll start with the first presentation by Bruno

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de Bachter.

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He has 25

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years experience as a freelance consultant in business -to -business and European

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Union advocacy communication.

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He combines his technical background in engineering with a passion for

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employing precise forms of discretion.

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and a wide range of knowledge of the electricity system,

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the energy transition,

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and policy making.

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Since 2011,

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he has been an impasse consultant and copywriter to the National Copper

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Association Europe on topics related to transformers,

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motors,

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and electrical safety.

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For all of us who grew up reading your reports,

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it was a great honor to be presenting.

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So I'll be going around the room.

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S… Speaker 1 (Eemods 19.5 15_30)

Thank you very much for this introduction.

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By the way,

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normally my colleague Fernando Nuno was supposed to give this presentation,

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but he couldn't be here because of a small medical issue,

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so I will take over,

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but the paper was coded by both of us,

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so I'm familiar with the material.

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So I'm going to talk about the raw material supply risk

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of motors.

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So of course energy efficiency is the main topic of this

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whole conference and the whole environmental impact is a very

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important topic as well.

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But as we heard already in 2017,

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there were also some talks about the supply

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risk of certain raw materials and this has become ever more important.

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There is a lot of fuss about the rare earth materials

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and other materials where the European Union has a

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kind of dependency from import and often import from

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very specific countries.

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So it is important to look at this.

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For instance,

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lithium, magnesium,

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gallium and other rare earth elements all have more

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than 65 % of import from one country outside the European

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Union.

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So this is the agenda.

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So first we will define what is actually the supply risk and

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then we will look at it specifically for motors.

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We also talk about the material impact of

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the energy losses.

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So I gave a presentation about this two years ago already.

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Energy losses also have a material impact upstream in

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the system.

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And then we will look at different efficiency levels and how this translates

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to the motors of different efficiencies.

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So how to define supply risk?

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Well,

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actually the European Union did this in the impact assessment of

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the Critical Raw Material Act.

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And there,

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a critical raw material is defined based on two axes.

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One is the risk of supply and the other is the economic importance.

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And there are formulas for this economic importance here.

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It's about the share of the material in an economic sector,

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the added value of this material,

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and then also the substitution index,

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so the more easy it is to substitute the material by another

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one, the lower economic importance.

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Second axis is on the supply risk itself,

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the loan formula.

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It's actually quite straightforward if you look at it.

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So it's mainly about the concentration of the supply across countries

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and also looking at their governance level.

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So there is this weighting according to the global

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concentration and concentration specifically for the

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material imported in the EU.

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And this is then the imported lines of the EU.

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Then there is also the secondary material that is being

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used, so of course the more recited material that stays in the European

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Union and is being used,

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that has the supply risk,

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and then we have again a substitution index.

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So these are the formulas from the Critical Role

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Act.

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So if we look

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at different materials...

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on both axes and there is also a threshold set for what is a

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critical raw material threshold on both economic

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importance and supply risk we see not surprisingly

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that there are rare earths somewhere very high also boron

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is quite high in this graph just

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above the threshold of supply risk is aluminium

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And iron is way below,

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maybe surprisingly to some of you also,

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copper is far below the supply,

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but above the threshold.

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economic improvements and because of this there

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is a second list that has been made by the impact assessment of the critical

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raw materials act which is the list of strategic raw materials for

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the european union and this is looking at

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the importance for the green and digital transitions and for

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defense and aerospace

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And in the whole list that has been made of strategic raw materials there are actually

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two which are strategic but not critical,

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copper and nickel.

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And because they are in this list,

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they also get support for enforcing

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domestic sourcing and production,

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so basically for copper mining and fining

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within Europe.

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So they are eligible for support,

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but they are not strictly critical to a

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material according to the definitions of the European Union.

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So now what happens if we use those formulas on the materials

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that are being used in manufacturing?

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A

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question that sometimes comes up,

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and I heard it again this morning in the presentations,

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yes, certain motors use more material,

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so maybe there should be...

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deprioritized and the ones that lose less material should get priority because

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this material supply is becoming a big problem for the European Union

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or it is getting a lot of focus in that case so

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that would be the most easy thing to look at

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just at a simple weight in kilograms and we see here for 55 kilowatt

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i .e.

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4 motor

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the induction motor is more than 500 kilos,

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a synchronous -relectance motor just below 500,

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and a permanent magnet motor is only half of that.

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So you could say,

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okay, we have to favor permanent magnet motors because we use less material.

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Of course,

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you immediately can feel that,

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and now I'm not talking about the environmental analysis,

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because that's still another one that also needs to be made,

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but from a supply risk analysis,

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this doesn't feel right.

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It's clear that this mass needs to be pondered by the supply

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risk.

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And for this,

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we can use the formulas that I presented.

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So if we multiply the

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weight of the materials with this supply risk

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index,

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which I showed the formula.

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Well,

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it doesn't look very different,

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basically.

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And this is the course,

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if you look at all the materials that are being used in the motor,

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it's mainly iron for the steel.

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So,

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because of this,

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the multiplication by the index,

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the supply risk index,

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doesn't have a big effect on the balance

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between the different technologies.

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But here again,

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there is a kind of something that doesn't feel right because

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the iron production each year globally is

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1500 million tons,

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neodymium production 34 ,000 tons.

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So you can feel that one ton of iron comparing this with one ton

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of neodymium is not a fair comparison.

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So you should ponder this weight times supply risk still

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by the total production.

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of this material within the world.

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And this is exactly what the European

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Union has done also in the eco -design preparatory study on

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the scarce environmental growth and critical raw materials and recycled

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content.

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So this is a transversal preparatory study.

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It's not for one certain product category specifically.

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It was published in June 2024.

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And it ranks the different products

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that are regulated by eco -design according to supply

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risk by adding up the different supply risk figures

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for the materials being used.

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And they are indeed pondered by the overall market size of each of

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those materials as a working factor.

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So this is the formula that is being used.

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So for each product,

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for instance a motor,

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and it can also be a transformer or whatever,

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the sum is being made of all the materials used

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in this product.

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And then this is rated by the total market tonnage

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of this material globally.

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And here we see a logarithmic scale.

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the production in storage of different types of material

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so you see iron is very high there and aluminium

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copper and material like disclosium is

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very low on this scale so these are official figures

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European Union,

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so it's all publicly available.

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Based on this,

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this preparatory study made a list according to

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a ranking,

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according to the criticality of materials being used

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in eco -design regulated products.

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Photovoltaic panels are on one.

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Of the total 38 number of product groups,

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electric motors are also in the top 10 so you can see them on the map in our place so

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it is an important topic if you look at the different

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materials on logarithmic scale and their market production

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globally if you look at the materials that are used typically in a motor

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iron is of course at the

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first place and then disposal at the other end

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So, if we do this,

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if we take the weight of each material and multiply it by the supply

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risk index and we divide it by the global production of this material and

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we then compare the different motor technologies for this 55 kW

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ICO4 motor,

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then we see actually the real picture of the supply risk of those motors.

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And there we see,

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because this is a logarithmic scale again,

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that induction motors and synchronous reluctance motors are in the same

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order of magnitude,

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but we see that the permanent magnet motor now has 250

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times more supply risk for the EU than

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synchronous reluctance motor and the induction motor.

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So here we see the real supply risk that is

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represented in this form.

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So coming back to the question that I put up before,

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should certain technologies be favored because they use less

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material?

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Well,

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it's not as simple as that,

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because permanent magnet motors require mainly

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less steel,

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but they do have permanent magnets,

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of course, and this introduces a highly critical and scarce set

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of raw materials.

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and this can be calculated and represented in figures with

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the formulas that come from the Critical Role Materials

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Act.

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So,

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from this perspective induction and synchronous reaction technologies

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are superior to thermal impact.

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This is for the

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motor manufacturing.

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Since we gave this presentation already two years ago and we continue

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to favor this idea that we should not only look at the manufacturing but we should look at

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the entire electrical system.

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There's also the material impact of the Dalsos.

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So if you have the same 55

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kilowatt IE4 motor it gives a certain mechanical

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power but unfortunately also Dalsos even though it's a very efficient motor.

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load factor 2500 hours a year of

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load in England,

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we get a loss of 5 .9 MWh per

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year for this model.

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And this of course comes from power stations

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and this is mainly print and solar that are being added to the

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existing power stations nowadays in Europe and also the transmission system has

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to be reinforced.

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to be able to deliver this power and this energy.

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So we also use this material.

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And here we see the number

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of power that is required to deliver this energy of the

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losses of this motor.

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So here we see the bills

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of material of wind and solar energy.

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And these materials we can also multiply by the supply

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risk index divided by the global production.

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And look at what is this,

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mainly for wheat.

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There is quite a high supply risk because there are lots of rare

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materials used again in new generators.

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For PV it's much lower,

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but if you add all those materials

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up, the supply risk of power generation,

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and this is even without taking transmission into account,

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is also considerable.

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Adding this to the supply risk of

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the manufacturing,

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we see the following figure.

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For the induction motor and the synchronous reluctance motor,

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we can't even see the blue line anymore.

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So the supply risk index is completely dominated

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by the losses and by the generation that is needed to

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produce.

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For the permanent magnet motor,

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it's a different story.

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You see both of them on the figure,

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but you see that it's still dominated by the manufacturing of

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the motor itself.

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And even if the motor would have zero losses,

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it would still be higher than the induction motor unless it

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was short and smooth.

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So there you see that it is dominated

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by the manufacturing state.

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So,

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adding this all together and comparing motors of different efficiency

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levels, does it make sense to keep on increasing

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the efficiency performance standards?

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if Europe is more and more focusing on the supply risk of

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the materials and,

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of course,

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motors of higher efficiency as we now use more

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materials.

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And what can be the unintended effects?

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Well, if we use the calculation methods that I just presented and we compare,

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for instance,

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an induction motor,

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are you formal?

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with an induction motor,

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IU4, synchronous reluctance motor,

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and permanent magnet motor,

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also IU4.

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We see that if we increase efficiency,

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not surprisingly,

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because as I showed you already,

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the energy losses are dominating this supply risk for

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induction motors and synchronous reluctance motor,

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we see more or less a 20 % reduction in the risk.

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And then for the permanent magnet motor there is a 137

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% increase of the risk if you go from an I3

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induction motor to an I4 permanent magnet motor.

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So does it make sense to increase MEPS from

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a supply risk perspective?

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Of course there are other things to consider.

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And of course, the environmental impact certainly remains very important

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as well.

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But if you just look from this perspective,

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what happens if you increase NEPS?

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Well,

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it's a good thing as long as the market doesn't shift,

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as long as induction motors and synchronous reluctance motors keep

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on dominating the market.

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But if this would provoke a shift towards permanent negative motors,

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this is a different thing.

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really shifts the supply risk of the whole modern market of Europe.

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So maybe

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high gaps could be considered in combination with other actions that are favoring

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low supply risk technologies.

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So to wrap up,

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supply risk is a crucial indicator for the EU.

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The masses of raw materials need to be rated to have

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a good picture of what supply risk actually is.

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And this also needs to be divided by the total global production

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to have a meaningful comparison.

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And if you look at the same efficiency

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level, permanent magnet motor has more or less 250

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times higher supply risk than industrial motor,

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synchronous and electric motor.

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If we go to higher efficiency levels,

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then we see that this is a good thing for the supply

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risk, as long as we stay with induction motors and some trans -relatance motors.

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But if the market could shift due to these new

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efficiency regulations towards permanent market motors,

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there is also a higher supply risk for Europe.

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So,

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that was it.

Eemods 19.5 15_30

Sommario

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