Nouvel enregistrement 18

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S… Speaker 2 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

a few different articles about india and i am supposed to

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have a like a panorama or

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of what is going on in india right now so i need to

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have some information about how india was

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how India had problems with

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the impact exactly the impact of the Middle East crisis and

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where is the economy of India and how can it keep

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growing with its weaknesses and

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advantages and especially the demography seems to

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be a real

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a real strength,

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but also it's hard to manage.

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So it's interesting to see things through this angle too.

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Sure,

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sure.

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So if it's easier,

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I can start with sort of the immediate

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impact and immediate outlook related to

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the Iran conflict.

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And then go on to sort of the bigger picture,

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the longer term story and how the demographics

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play into that.

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And then any questions,

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feel free.

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Yeah,

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just jump in.

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On the more immediate impact,

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yeah,

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India has taken a bit of a hit

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from this Iran conflict.

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mainly through two channels.

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One is its currency and investor

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sentiment.

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So you may have seen that the Indian

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rupee has been under pressure,

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it was testing all -time lows.

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Capital outflows have been a problem with foreigners

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pulling money,

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particularly out of Indian equities.

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But there was also a bit of outflow from Indian bonds.

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And that was just creating pressure on India's external

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financing,

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as it were.

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Not that India is super dependent on external

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financing,

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but it was a problem given the drain

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on reserves.

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The other channel was that India is

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highly reliant on the Middle East for oil and

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gas, in particular gas,

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imports.

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And while on the

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oil side,

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I think the impact was mitigated okay

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-ish.

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India was,

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from a supply angle,

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was still able to source oil.

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It was finding other providers,

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be that Venezuela or the US even.

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So from a supply angle on the oil

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side, it was okay.

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But obviously the cost has been one factor that's been a problem.

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And we've seen the government have to hike fuel.

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prices,

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which in turn will lead to inflation rising in

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India.

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And that's obviously an issue.

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But the other one was that gas,

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on the gas side,

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India has had some sourcing issue.

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And you've seen it was quite concentrated

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in where it impacted.

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So one

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You can look to as the ceramics industry,

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highly reliant on using gas and exports of ceramics

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dropped sharply in the past

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months or so.

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So quite a niche sector,

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but to show that there were some economic impacts.

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But overall,

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I'd say the economy.

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at least very near term,

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hasn't been disrupted too significantly.

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Where the impact will come is over the next

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couple of months or so,

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as we see the price rises start to filter through in

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terms of the fuel heights.

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will translate immediately to the

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consumer paying those

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higher prices,

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but also just transportation costs within

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the country.

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is maybe an underestimated element in terms of,

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say, food prices as well,

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given how India's food production

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is distributed.

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So just in

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terms of the very short -term impact,

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it's more...

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inflationary impact,

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then growth

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or really hampering growth in a substantial

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way.

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You'd still expect India's economy to be growing 6

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plus percent,

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maybe not the highs of 7 plus

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that was hitting before this,

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but it's still a decent growth rate.

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So from that perspective,

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I think the Iran conflict hasn't been

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as painful to India as maybe feared initially,

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particularly if this deal holds.

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And that's,

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I guess,

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a big if given the situation

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there.

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India's,

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yeah,

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I guess the other point I wanted to make was that India

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went into this conflict,

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or well,

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you know,

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before this conflict began,

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India's inflation was very low.

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So in a sense,

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despite this inflationary shock,

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It was coming from a very low base.

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So it wasn't like inflation was high already.

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And this is,

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you know,

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de -anchoring inflation expectations and the like.

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So in that sense,

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it's not been as painful as maybe it could have been.

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I think if this...

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If this deal falls through and we see the straight closure

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extended and we're

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talking into the latter stages of

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this year that oil supplies are disrupted,

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then it becomes very severe for India.

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It goes back to this point that India is highly reliant on

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oil imports,

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gas imports,

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and that's where you'd have to see economic

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shutdowns in certain places to mitigate a lack of supply.

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I mean,

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India wouldn't be the first emerging market to

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be hit.

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has more money,

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more buying power than its neighbors,

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but certainly that impact

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would be more severe than in developed markets.

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Ultimately,

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just like the pandemic,

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it comes down to who has the most money in these type

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of situations.

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Yeah, so that's the more immediate story

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around the Iran impact.

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I guess the other point,

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and it's one easy to forget,

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is that India does have a lot

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of migrant workers in the Gulf region as well.

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And from a remittance angle,

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again,

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because...

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Because economic activities may be dropped a bit in the

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region, but it's not such that we wouldn't

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expect a rebound in terms of construction activity,

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shipping to pick up again.

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So from the remittance point of view,

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it's not,

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again,

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not a severe impact for India's economy.

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Yeah, but I think just broadening out the...

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what the implications have been for this year's outlook.

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Essentially,

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it's a supply shock that a central bank

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in India has,

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because inflation was running low before this supply

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shock, has been able to hold off hiking interest rates

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because of a supply shock.

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It's not the kind of ideal policy response to

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a supply shock.

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And instead,

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they've done measures to sort of support the rupee,

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these capital flow measures,

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which are actually,

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you know,

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India likes to wait to

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a crisis to make reforms.

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And it's done that in terms of some of the reforms

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around taxation on foreign bond

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investors and the like.

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encouraging flows from the diaspora to

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come back to India.

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All those measures should actually down the line

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be supportive of India's sort of balance.

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balance of payments position.

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And that can be seen as a positive.

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But as we discussed,

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India does tend to wait for crises to make

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reforms.

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And that's maybe one of the policy challenges.

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Was it was it the EU was once described by ministers

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as saying in a crisis?

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Was it Draghi or someone said?

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I can't remember.

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But yes,

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so that's,

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that's the sort of nearer term outlook.

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Any questions on that?

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Yeah,

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what are the strengths of India for keeping its

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growth going that that reason?

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Yeah, yeah.

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So I guess the two factors that have allowed

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India to sort of mitigate this crisis,

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keep it above 6%.

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One is that it's quite an insular economy.

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Domestic demand drives India's economy.

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And while,

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you know,

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there is an inflationary shock,

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the government...

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has control of fuel prices,

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so ultimately was able to stagger that

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impact,

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which has helped the consumer side

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of the economy.

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And the other being that India is a very services

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orientated export and just generally

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the economy is still heavily weighted to

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services.

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So in that sense,

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higher input prices haven't been as big an issue

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for that part of the economy.

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The pass -through hasn't been as big for consumers

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and the external demand and

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new business on the services side actually has held up pretty

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well.

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So there's been a bit of resilience on that big

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part of the economy,

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despite what I would say is headwinds

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more for the manufacturing sector,

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which is relatively smaller.

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Yeah,

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and I think there were a few other tailwinds

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coming into this year that before this

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conflict began was making me a bit more positive on

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India.

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The fact that they'd cut GST recently,

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they'd done some GST reforms,

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which was...

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goods and service taxes were lowered essentially

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on key consumer goods as

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well as cement,

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which was set to a support consumer demand

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that helped further stimulate the construction sector.

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You had the central

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bank rates were fairly low.

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And that was seeing sort of an uptick in terms of credit creation.

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And you'd had this positive

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news around sort of the U .S.

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trade deal and the tariffs coming down there.

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So it was kind of a positive narrative going into this year.

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And then an external factor,

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you know,

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S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

as...

13:44

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

One of the challenges that we're facing in the global economy at the

13:48

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

moment is that these emerging markets are doing things

13:52

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

and making positive steps and then an external force

13:57

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

decides to screw it up for them.

13:58

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

So,

14:01

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

yeah,

14:02

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

that was kind of why we're quite positive and maybe why

14:07

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

India's economy has been able to weather this a bit better.

14:12

S… Speaker 2 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

And about the free trade agreements with the US

14:16

S… Speaker 2 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

and with the EU,

14:19

S… Speaker 2 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

do you think this can have a real impact on India's

14:23

S… Speaker 2 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

economy or will it be very progressive,

14:26

S… Speaker 2 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

very slow to come?

14:28

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

Yeah,

14:30

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

I think from an immediate standpoint,

14:34

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

there was certainly,

14:36

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

particularly on the US side,

14:38

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

I'd say, when the EU...

14:42

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

trade deal was announced.

14:43

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

I think it's a notable

14:47

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

deal.

14:48

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

I mean, the EU is India's second largest market

14:52

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

and I think could overtake the US as India's

14:57

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

prime export destination,

14:59

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

to be honest.

15:00

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

But the sort of market business sentiment

15:04

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

when it was announced wasn't particularly enthused because

15:08

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

there was still this uncertainty around the US

15:12

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

trade situation.

15:14

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

But with that potentially starting

15:18

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

or we're seeing sort of...

15:22

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

progress or maybe some deal between

15:27

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

with the US come to fruition.

15:30

S… Speaker 2 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

I mean,

15:31

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

maybe at this G7 meeting,

15:34

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

we finally get progress

15:39

S… Speaker 2 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

on that front.

15:40

S… Speaker 2 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

But ultimately,

15:41

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

India isn't.

15:43

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

front and center of the firing line anymore.

15:46

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

And I think that can be taken as a positive.

15:50

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

A deal with the US is unlikely to

15:55

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

be all -encompassing.

15:57

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

But even if it reduces some trade barriers

16:01

S… Speaker 2 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

for India,

16:02

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

that will be a positive.

16:03

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

The EU deal,

16:06

S… Speaker 2 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

I mean,

16:06

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

as you'll be aware,

16:09

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

it's not yet ratified.

16:10

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

But unlike,

16:13

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

I think, like the Mercursor deal,

16:16

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

it doesn't need to go to government or the parliament.

16:20

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

So all in all,

16:22

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

that should go quite smoothly.

16:26

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

can be a boost to India's economy.

16:30

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

I think a large part of

16:34

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

how it plays out will be whether India's

16:38

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

policymakers and business environment

16:43

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

can fully capture the

16:47

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

upsides from a trade deal like this.

16:50

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

I think they definitely will capture some.

16:53

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

There will be some boost.

16:55

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

but it's whether the kind of transformation that

16:59

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

you saw with Vietnam's economy and embracing these free

17:03

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

trade agreements can be replicated

17:08

S… Speaker 2 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

in India.

17:09

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

And that's been one of the challenges,

17:11

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

to be honest,

17:13

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

when it comes to India's growth

17:17

S… Speaker 2 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

outlook.

17:18

S… Speaker 3 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

How about this

17:22

S… Speaker 3 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

demography, which seems to be the largest

17:27

S… Speaker 3 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

population in the world.

17:28

S… Speaker 3 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

And how can they manage to have enough jobs,

17:32

S… Speaker 3 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

enough homes,

17:35

S… Speaker 3 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

everything you need when you have such a big population?

17:38

S… Speaker 2 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

Yeah, yeah,

17:39

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

it's, you know,

17:40

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

you talk to Indian

17:45

S… Speaker 2 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

strategists,

17:47

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

commentators,

17:49

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

they refer to it as a blessing and a curse.

17:52

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

Because in in

17:56

S… Speaker 2 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

many ways,

17:57

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

it is

17:58

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

India's big sort of ace in its

18:03

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

hand when it's negotiating with the EU,

18:06

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

the US,

18:07

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

whoever,

18:09

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

ASEAN,

18:10

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

what do they all,

18:12

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

what's India's big playing card?

18:15

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

It is its massive consumer market.

18:18

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

It's fast growing consumer market as

18:23

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

well.

18:25

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

So it has to play that card smartly.

18:28

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

I think with the trade deals that it's

18:32

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

doing, I think it has to some extent.

18:37

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

As you'll see with a lot of the deals,

18:39

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

there's a lot of focus on,

18:41

S… Speaker 2 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

say,

18:42

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

migration kind of rules

18:48

S… Speaker 2 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

and allowing.

18:50

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

Indians basically to

18:54

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

have easier visa access to,

18:58

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

say, work in the EU or UK or New

19:03

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

Zealand or GCC.

19:05

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

But one of the criticisms would be that not

19:10

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

enough is being done in these deals to actually try and

19:15

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

bring capital into India and

19:20

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

create the jobs domestically rather than,

19:23

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

say, finding work externally,

19:27

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

as it were,

19:28

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

which obviously is a big challenge for

19:32

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

India.

19:32

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

I think tying it into what

19:37

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

we've seen with the approach to free trade agreements,

19:41

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

it's actually been a realisation.

19:45

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

from the Modi government that exports

19:50

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

and manufacturing and tying into global trade is

19:54

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

vital to create the kind of jobs that India needs for its

19:58

S… Speaker 2 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

population.

20:00

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

a growing workforce. I mean...

20:03

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

Take one example,

20:06

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

and this is maybe one upside from the EU trade agreement that

20:10

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

India may or may not be able to capture,

20:14

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

is on the garments and textile exports.

20:18

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

India lags the likes of Vietnam,

20:21

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

Bangladesh in terms of exports to the

20:26

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

EU or just globally in garments,

20:28

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

which is kind of ridiculous.

20:32

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

in many ways,

20:33

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

given India's massive workforce and history

20:40

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

in terms of government production.

20:43

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

So this free trade agreement,

20:46

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

particularly at a time when Bangladesh itself is in a state

20:50

S… Speaker 2 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

of flux,

20:51

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

Myanmar, which was once a textile producers

20:57

S… Speaker 2 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

Yeah,

20:58

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

long been sort of in chaos in

21:02

S… Speaker 2 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

a civil war.

21:03

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

And Vietnam as well is starting

21:08

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

to move up the value chain,

21:10

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

find supply constraints in a smaller

21:14

S… Speaker 2 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

labor force.

21:15

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

So this is a big opportunity for India to

21:20

S… Speaker 2 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

create jobs.

21:21

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

And again,

21:23

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

sort of...

21:26

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

take that step into becoming a manufacturing hub.

21:30

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

Essentially,

21:31

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

India's struggled to do that because of a history of,

21:36

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

you know,

21:38

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

protectionist policies,

21:41

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

really,

21:42

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

through much of the previous decades.

21:46

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

Attempts to open up have generally been

21:50

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

on sort of been too,

21:55

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

too much in terms of capital market liberalisation

22:00

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

and that causing issues alongside sort of trade

22:04

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

liberalisation and the two being conflated such that

22:08

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

protectionism comes in on

22:12

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

the capital market side and on the goods trade

22:16

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

side.

22:17

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

And that's been somewhat of an issue.

22:20

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

But I think there is a realisation that...

22:23

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

attempts to do the Made in India program,

22:26

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

which was sort of putting barriers to

22:31

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

inputs and imports from abroad and

22:35

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

develop domestic producers or say laptops and

22:39

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

or encourage FDI into India from

22:45

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

a sort of stick instead of carrot approach.

22:49

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

That wasn't really working.

22:50

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

And India's particularly,

22:54

S… Speaker 2 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

again,

22:55

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

going back to this point about making progress

22:59

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

in a crisis,

23:00

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

ever since Liberation Day,

23:02

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

as it is phrased,

23:04

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

India has been taking steps to reduce

23:08

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

trade import barriers.

23:10

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

These free trade agreements all

23:15

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

sort of being sped up.

23:17

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

following the US tariffs.

23:19

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

And I think that

23:23

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

embrace of exports and goods manufacturing

23:28

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

is a key component of India's potential

23:32

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

to create jobs for its workforce.

23:34

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

Still,

23:36

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

I think around...

23:40

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

Manufacturing accounts are around 15%,

23:45

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

let's say,

23:48

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

of India's economy,

23:49

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

which

23:54

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

is well under where it could be.

23:56

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

I think for Vietnam or so,

23:59

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

it would be around 30%.

24:05

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

Its manufacturing share of the economy

24:09

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

is lower than its agricultural share,

24:11

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

which really does show that there's

24:16

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

an issue around creating this manufacturing base.

24:20

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

Yet manufacturing can provide

24:25

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

the kind of job opportunities that India

24:29

S… Speaker 2 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

really needs.

24:30

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

So it's a big...

24:32

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

At the moment,

24:33

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

you've effectively got over half the labour force

24:37

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

sat in agricultural work,

24:40

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

which is very low.

24:41

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

The productivity rates are very low because

24:47

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

essentially it's the only work that there is.

24:51

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

It's not done in an efficient way

24:56

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

and effectively most of the...

25:00

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

If workers can find jobs in manufacturing,

25:03

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

that would be a more productive,

25:07

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

but pay a higher wage and offer sort of improved living

25:11

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

standards.

25:11

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

So that's one of the challenges for India is on the manufacturing side

25:16

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

to create jobs.

25:19

S… Speaker 2 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

How about IT?

25:20

S… Speaker 2 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

Because India is supposed to be a high

25:26

S… Speaker 2 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

-quality IT workforce.

25:29

S… Speaker 2 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

And it seems that even

25:33

S… Speaker 2 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

though they have this big quality,

25:36

S… Speaker 2 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

India was not able to take the AI

25:40

S… Speaker 2 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

turn.

25:41

S… Speaker 2 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

And maybe they can still do it or maybe they

25:45

S… Speaker 2 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

can...

25:46

S… Speaker 2 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

they can get a profit from this massive workforce.

25:51

S… Speaker 2 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

What do you think about it?

25:52

S… Speaker 1 (Nouvel enregistrement 18)

I think,

Nouvel enregistrement 18

Sommario

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