Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1

May 09, 2026 06:35 · 41:19 · English · Whisper Turbo · 8 Talare
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S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
Hello, Capital Age listeners.
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Welcome back.
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Today,
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I am thrilled to have two repeat visitors,
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and even more importantly,
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very longtime friends joining me,
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Stacia Gar and Danny Johnson.
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Stacia and Danny are the co -founders of Red Thread Research,
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which they launched in 2018 and built into one of the most respective independent
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research voices in HR,
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covering talent management,
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people analytics,
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learning, and the technologies we're shaping all of it.
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They're here to talk about their 2026 Megatrends Report.
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And of course, we do love to talk about trends here in Capital H.
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Every year,
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they do something most HR researchers don't.
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They start outside in.
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Before looking at what's happening inside,
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they study what's bearing down on them from the outside.
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And what they're seeing in 2026 is a convergence that's hard to ignore.
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Major shifts happening right now,
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from the pressure on authenticity in an AI -generated world,
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the growing complexity of global workforces,
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the idea that AI is quickly becoming the air we breathe.
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All forces converging at once,
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all intense,
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and all hitting simultaneously.
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Let's dive in.
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S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
Welcome,
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Dani. Welcome,
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Stacia.
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Thank you.
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Happy to be here.
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Thank you, David.
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So given all that,
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where do you think we should start?
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Should we take a quick outside -in view,
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talk about just the big picture of these shifts happening all at once?
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S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
Yes,
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we absolutely should.
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So thank you first and foremost for having us,
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David.
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It's always a pleasure to get to be here and to talk with you.
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You mentioned that we do something that's a little bit different,
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and I think you're right in that
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starting from the big picture.
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And when we think about the big picture,
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truly is like the biggest picture.
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Like what is happening out there in the world that is affecting
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us as humans,
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affecting us as societies,
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and certainly affecting us as businesses.
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And then given that,
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what are the implications for HR?
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And why is that different?
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Well, a lot of folks will say,
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oh, well, we're going to talk about the HR trends.
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I don't know if we've done this for years,
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talking about these sorts of things in years past.
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It was like, oh, engagement's really important or,
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oh, this thing's really important.
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And it's like, actually,
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no,
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what's really important are these big picture things that are changing how we need
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to rethink how we're serving the business.
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And then the changes in processes or practices
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or approaches that then need to flow from that.
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And so that's really what this research.
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is about.
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And one of the things that I find interesting is every year,
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Danny and I sit down as we're starting to look,
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hopefully, towards the Thanksgiving holiday.
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And we say,
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you know, what's different?
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And every year I start off with,
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I think it's mostly,
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it's not that different.
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You know, some stuff changed,
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but it's not that big of a thing.
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And then we get into it and we realize how much does actually change over the course
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of a year.
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Some trends are enduring AI.
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you know, has endured obviously for a number of years,
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but really the dynamics and the fact that these things are happening together
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all at once and hitting all of us at once,
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I think is one of the biggest shifts that we've seen over the recent past.
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Dani, what would you add?
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I don't know that I would add much.
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I think Stacia's right.
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I think it's more the volume of things that are happening at once that
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is affecting organizations.
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Organizations are telling us that they just don't have time to react to all the things
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because, and they're all interdependent.
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So all the things are affecting all the other things,
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which is just creating a lot of unrest in a lot of organizations right now.
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And exhaustion.
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And exhaustion.
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That's one of the things I feel like I'm hearing more than ever is not
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just people who are kind of maybe in the middle doing all the hard work and all the movement,
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but CHROs just in,
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you know, unguarded moments saying,
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I am tired.
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Like, this is so hard.
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And it hasn't let up.
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We had COVID and we had the great resignation and now we have this and I'm
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just tired.
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So not a paralysis,
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just an exhaustion.
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I don't think paralysis.
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I think everybody's kind of dedicated to figuring out what's going on right now and how to move through
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it. As you know,
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HR people are very,
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they're bleeding hearts.
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They want to solve the things for the people in the organization.
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I don't think that's let up at all.
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But we are hearing sort of different flavors of how we move forward than we have in the past.
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But because they are sort of everything all at once,
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is there an issue of sort of ownership?
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S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
Oh, yeah.
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Who owns what?
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For sure there is.
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We're hearing things on both sides of the spectrum from CHROs
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and from senior leaders.
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Either they own it and they want to sort of define and write what the
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future looks like for people in the organization,
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or they don't own it and they're waiting for their organization to tell them what
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to do. It's very interesting.
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Usually there's been this push for sort of like,
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we need the seat of the table because we need to do it.
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And now we're hearing these two factions kind of come out.
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It's very strange.
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And I think that part of the confusion there is that they recognize
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how much this technology AI is influencing all of this,
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but they don't really understand.
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what their role is.
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Because when I've pushed on these CHOs and said,
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hey, well, like,
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this is all about how people do their work.
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Like, why in the world wouldn't you be leading the charge on this?
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And they're like,
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well, yeah,
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Stacia, but like,
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we don't do the work.
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The business is the one doing the work.
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So they're going to have to redefine the processes and the work and how the technology
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integrates,
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et cetera.
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Like,
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that's not us.
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Like, we'll help,
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but that's not us to lead the charge.
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And then the other group that
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Danny mentioned was like,
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oh my goodness,
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they cannot do this on their own.
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You know,
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what HR has always done is define change in how
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it impacts people and help redefine work process
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and work with others in the business.
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But HR has been the lead.
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And so I think it comes back to fundamentally how HR organizations
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see their role in the organization and where
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they are comfortable drawing those lines.
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I also wonder if there's,
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I don't know how to say this without just saying it,
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but there seems to be a dip in sort of the importance of people
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in organizations right now.
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It's all about the technology.
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We're funding technology.
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We're laying off people so that we can fund technology.
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We're rethinking the work so that we can do it with fewer people,
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blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
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I think that's a very short -term view of how we're doing this or
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how we should be doing it in the future.
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But I think that's what's happening right now.
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And in that case,
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HR isn't necessarily in charge.
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Those things are handled by other parts of the organization traditionally.
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I think I know what you're saying generally,
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Danny.
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I think I would frame it as AI seems to be
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in particular holding a mirror back up to the organization.
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sort of reminding it or perhaps for the first time just helping it to understand how much
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we just sort of assume about people,
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how much that people are just sort of fuzzy and even in very prescribed
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kinds of work.
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You can't plan for everything.
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And so the humans doing the work kind of made up for that.
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We just didn't really realize it.
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Now suddenly we do as we have to try to,
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if we're trying to design that work for an agent to do,
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now suddenly we have to figure out how the human does all that work.
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But what it does is it's at least for,
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I think the point I agree with.
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at least at this particular moment,
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it's sort of objectified,
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and that's the right word,
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the humans in the organization too.
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It's sort of now we're thinking about humans in a way that's mechanical and
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mathematical,
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just like we're thinking about algorithms and agents.
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I agree with you.
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I hope that's just a moment.
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It's also making us realize just how valuable.
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that fuzziness that humans bring really is.
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Yeah.
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The fuzziness that humans can deal with is very,
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very different than the fuzziness that an agent can deal with.
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I've been diving into sort of the back end of agents and talking to people that are creating agents.
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There is this contextual level to what humans can handle
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that is not yet replicable in technologies.
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And I think we're close to realizing that and we'll start paying
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attention to the people again.
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But right now,
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I think we agree,
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David.
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they're underutilized and I think undervalued in organizations right now.
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There's another reason I think that we're going to see a shift too,
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David, and maybe this gets a later question on optimism and
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such, but agents are not free and they're only
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going to get
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more expensive as we integrate AI more into the organization.
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Now, all you technologists out there,
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I know what you're saying is,
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haven't you heard of Moore's Law and the fact that technology gets cheaper,
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blah, blah, blah, blah,
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blah, and that the cost of compute has gone down?
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I get it.
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I hear you.
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I'm not aware of that.
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But the thing is,
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is as we rely,
8:30
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
we as organizations rely more and more on AI and AI
8:34
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
agents to do the work.
8:36
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
We are not only relying on the capabilities that
8:41
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
exist today.
8:42
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
and the price point to some extent that exists today,
8:44
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
but we're also relying on those technology providers to continue to invest
8:48
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
in those agents in a way that aligns with what we need as
8:53
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
an organization and with an assumption that we will be able to continue
8:57
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
to customize them and make them malleable in a way that we want.
9:00
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
And because of the need for some sort of technological consistency,
9:04
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
we are going to be beholden.
9:09
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
to that technological provider.
9:10
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
You think today that you're maybe upset with the HCM provider you're
9:14
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
with and you're going to have to rip it out every 10 years or whatever?
9:17
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
Think about what that's going to look when all those agents are doing all of that work.
9:20
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
You have never seen Beholden until you envision that.
9:24
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
And at least with people.
9:26
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
They're on your balance sheet.
9:28
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
You pay them.
9:29
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
You have control.
9:31
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
You're on the edge in some ways of potentially losing control.
9:34
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
Now,
9:35
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
there's efficiency.
9:36
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
There's all sorts of good things.
9:37
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
I'm not discounting that.
9:38
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
But I'm just saying we haven't fully thought through all the implications of
9:43
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
going in the direction that a lot of these organizations are.
9:45
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
And once we do,
9:46
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
I think we will once again come back to,
9:48
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
huh,
9:49
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
there's a lot of value in the people who we actually pay to do the work.
9:53
S… Speaker 3 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
I think the other thing,
9:55
S… Speaker 3 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
I was having a couple of conversations last week at Learning Technologies,
9:58
S… Speaker 3 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
and one of them stands out.
10:00
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
Right now,
10:00
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
organizations are looking for moats.
10:02
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
What can the organization do that nobody else can do?
10:04
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
Right now,
10:05
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
it's how fast can you spin up these things and how much efficiency
10:09
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
can we find in these things?
10:11
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
But eventually, it's going to be,
10:12
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
again, the people in the organization with the ideas being able to capture that information
10:17
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
and those ideas and capitalize on those.
10:19
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
And that isn't done by agents,
10:21
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
and I don't see it being done by agents in the future,
10:23
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
which is why I think we're maybe at the very bottom of this people aren't valuable in
10:27
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
organizations right now.
10:28
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
Yeah, we've been using this word sort of your human edge and how do we kind of scale your
10:32
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
human edge?
10:33
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
Because everyone will have access to these same sorts of tools and models
10:37
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
and so forth,
10:38
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
right? So that part's not the part that's going to differentiate.
10:41
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
The part that will differentiate as we figure out the human piece.
10:44
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
But I also think,
10:45
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
to a point you're both making,
10:46
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
if all we're doing is focused on...
10:49
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
the efficiency side of this equation,
10:52
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
the economic side of it,
10:53
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
the same labor arbitrage we were talking through 10,
10:56
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
20 years ago when business process outsourcing was new,
11:00
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
now we've just replaced tokens for where's the cheapest human
11:04
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
power.
11:04
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
As long as that's the focus,
11:06
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
we're leaving just value on the table.
11:09
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
We're leaving the forward -looking view.
11:11
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
Yeah,
11:12
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
sure, I could do the same thing I currently do at 10 % the cost.
11:15
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
Or I could take the people I have and do 10 times the value,
11:18
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
right?
11:19
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
So, you know,
11:20
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
how do I get there?
11:20
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
Part of that,
11:21
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
maybe that leads us into actually diving into these mega trends.
11:25
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
One of the things that humans just do that,
11:28
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
you know, at the moment,
11:29
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
AI and agents don't is relationships.
11:32
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
And key to a relationship is trust.
11:36
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
But your research talks about why trust is getting
11:40
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
harder, mainly because content,
11:43
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
the kind of cost of entry to content is approaching
11:47
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
zero at this point.
11:48
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
So content created by AI already outnumbers humans.
11:52
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
And that's only going to seemingly increase exponentially.
11:57
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
So with all this synthetic content,
12:01
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
What is authentic?
12:02
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
What is real?
12:03
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
What is trustable?
12:05
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
I think a lot of organizations are trying to figure that out right now.
12:07
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
I was reading this morning on Reddit and some guy was talking about how he
12:12
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
was just about to hire somebody and then they realized that it wasn't actually a real person.
12:15
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
So they made it all the way through the hiring.
12:19
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
They made it through...
12:20
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
some sort of online check and then at the very end just realize that they weren't a person.
12:24
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
And so we have this happening on both sides,
12:26
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
right? Organizations aren't being completely honest with people.
12:29
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
People aren't being completely honest with organizations.
12:31
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
And this isn't just an AI thing.
12:33
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
This has been happening a little bit longer.
12:35
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
People have been holding two jobs for years now,
12:37
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
you know what I mean?
12:37
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
And I don't know that I have an opinion on that other than it is happening and organizations
12:42
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
aren't happy with it.
12:43
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
And so this idea of trust being lost between the humans and the organizations
12:47
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
that they work for,
12:48
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
it seems like it's increasing.
12:50
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
And one of the ways that we've combated that in the past is through good information.
12:53
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
But now that half the information is being created by bots or by agents
12:57
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
or by LLMs,
12:58
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
it's more difficult than ever to have trust in somebody unless you're breathing the very
13:03
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
same air they are.
13:03
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
Or you have breathed the same air.
13:05
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
Or you have breathed the same air that they have.
13:08
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
What are we replacing,
13:09
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
besides just being in the same room,
13:12
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
breathing the same air,
13:12
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
what are we replacing to bring back some degree of trustworthiness?
13:17
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
Well, I think it breaks into two things.
13:19
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
One is trust that you're a human.
13:22
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
When I was at Unleashed,
13:23
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
I actually saw a couple of interesting technologies that,
13:26
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
you know, have verification methods and fingers.
13:30
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
I'm waving my finger about all that kind of stuff to try to indicate
13:34
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
that you are actually the person you say you are,
13:36
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
etc. And so some of this will get that part of it will get solved by technology.
13:40
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
But this bigger question of authenticity
13:44
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
and.
13:46
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
is one,
13:47
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
you know,
13:48
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
we know that trust has been declining between people and the organizations
13:52
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
they work for well before AI and LLMs
13:56
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
took over this whole content thing.
13:58
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
So some of that goes back to how do our
14:02
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
leaders communicate?
14:03
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
How transparent are they?
14:05
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
David,
14:05
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
back in the old days,
14:06
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
we used to run a survey that said,
14:08
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
how open are your leaders to bad news?
14:10
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
And that was always one of the most predictive items,
14:12
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
right?
14:12
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
It's the same stuff.
14:14
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
Are your leaders trustworthy?
14:15
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
Are they straight with folks?
14:17
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
Are they transparent?
14:17
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
Are they really trying to be the leaders that people want to follow?
14:21
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
I think that is going to be a big part of it.
14:25
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
I think the other part of it,
14:26
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
too, is understanding how and when to use these tools.
14:30
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
Danny and I were talking about this earlier today,
14:33
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
you know, because obviously we write,
14:34
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
as do you.
14:35
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
And when an LLM can just like fill the space with
14:39
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
stuff, one,
14:41
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
a lot of that stuff wasn't something you actually meant as a writer.
14:44
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
Like, I wouldn't really put it that way.
14:46
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
Is it kind of close?
14:47
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
Yeah, maybe.
14:48
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
But like for somebody else on the other side who's maybe
14:52
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
ascertaining their perception of who you are and what you
14:56
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
stand for, kind of sort of me,
14:58
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
but not really me.
15:00
S… Speaker 5 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
doesn't really cut it.
15:01
S… Speaker 5 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
And so thinking through,
15:03
S… Speaker 5 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
when do I actually use this technology?
15:06
S… Speaker 5 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
And when do I not?
15:08
S… Speaker 5 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
What are the most important things for me to communicate?
15:11
S… Speaker 5 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
And how do I make sure I'm being
15:15
S… Speaker 5 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
a good trustee of the other person's time instead of just letting the LLM
15:19
S… Speaker 5 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
fill the space.
15:20
S… Speaker 5 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
These are all skills that we're going to have to develop as we want
15:24
S… Speaker 5 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
to continue with our authenticity and connection to others.
15:27
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
I think that probably goes both ways too.
15:29
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
What signals does the candidate or the employee need
15:33
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
to send or does the organization want them to send?
15:36
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
And then what do they expect back once you already work for the organization?
15:39
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
What kind of signals do you need to see from a leader?
15:42
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
and in what ways,
15:43
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
and so on.
15:44
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
It occurs to me that this is maybe a slight tangent.
15:47
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
This same conversation is happening inside the walls of organizations.
15:51
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
It's happening all the way into education.
15:54
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
A recent conversation with my high school teenager whose
15:58
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
final kind of big project in history class is the
16:03
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
teacher breaking them up into groups of three.
16:05
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
having them record the three students,
16:08
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
having them record essentially a seminar amongst themselves,
16:11
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
like engage a topic,
16:13
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
answer a question,
16:14
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
debate a topic amongst the three of you.
16:16
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
You can't have any devices in front of you.
16:18
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
Just engage the topic in a thoughtful way,
16:22
S… Speaker 6 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
right?
16:22
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
Like that kind of recording of that video is exactly what,
16:26
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
it's the right signals,
16:27
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
right? It's what the teacher needs to see captured in a way that they feel
16:31
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
like they can trust.
16:33
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
What it made me think about was another conversation I was having at a conference,
16:36
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
probably you've had similar,
16:37
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
on the talent acquisition side of things,
16:39
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
of companies sort of realizing at the high volume end of hiring,
16:43
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
we've always had,
16:43
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
if you were going to go work seasonally at a department store,
16:47
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
you're going to, for a long time,
16:48
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
you're going to sit down in front of a terminal and answer a quiz.
16:51
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
And on the other end of the spectrum,
16:54
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
if you're going to come work for a big professional services firm,
16:56
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
you're going to go through a day -long,
16:58
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
very exhaustive case interview process.
17:02
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
What happens when that quiz and that case interview process now applies
17:06
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
to every job?
17:07
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
But we're doing it at scale so that we're capturing all
17:11
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
the signals we need to capture in ways that we can trust.
17:13
S… Speaker 3 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
Yeah, I think that's a really interesting point,
17:16
S… Speaker 3 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
David, and one that we've been working with.
17:17
S… Speaker 3 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
So we just finished gathering data from 461 learning tech vendors.
17:21
S… Speaker 3 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
And one of the things that popped this year was assessment.
17:24
S… Speaker 3 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
So it went from 21 % of these vendors telling me that they offer assessment to
17:29
S… Speaker 3 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
about 89 % saying that they offer.
17:33
S… Speaker 3 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
Now, assessment can mean all kinds of things.
17:35
S… Speaker 3 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
It can mean that multiple choice test that you were talking about earlier,
17:37
S… Speaker 3 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
or it can mean a sandbox,
17:38
S… Speaker 3 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
or it can mean a rubric so somebody standing in front of them can assess
17:42
S… Speaker 3 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
whether they know the thing.
17:43
S… Speaker 3 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
But increasingly,
17:44
S… Speaker 3 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
we are looking for proof that people are who they say they are and can do
17:48
S… Speaker 3 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
the thing that they need to do,
17:49
S… Speaker 3 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
and it's even showing up in the technology that's now available.
17:52
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
This is one of those areas where it's a challenge,
17:54
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
but the solution actually sounds to me better than the current state
17:58
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
if we do it right.
17:59
S… Speaker 3 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
I think it can.
18:00
S… Speaker 3 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
I think one of the things that we misjudge a lot is the lift on the organization or the lift
18:04
S… Speaker 3 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
on the humans to make sure that we have the right kind of data,
18:06
S… Speaker 3 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
right? So increasingly,
18:07
S… Speaker 3 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
we're also seeing things like latent data feeding in to tell us,
18:10
S… Speaker 3 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
to give us ideas about how people are working and how they're doing things,
18:13
S… Speaker 3 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
which gets into the gigantic skills discussion.
18:16
S… Speaker 3 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
I think you're right.
18:17
S… Speaker 3 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
We can scale in ways that we couldn't four years ago when it comes to assessment.
18:20
S… Speaker 3 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
But I wonder sometimes if we're overusing it.
18:24
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
And we could get rid of some of the proxies that were really never particularly
18:28
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
useful in the first place.
18:29
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
Yes. Like the resume and even more so the cover letter.
18:32
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
Oh,
18:33
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
I don't know,
18:34
S… Speaker 3 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
David. You're talking crazy now.
18:35
S… Speaker 5 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
But it does require a rethink,
18:37
S… Speaker 5 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
right? Your example of the history teacher,
18:40
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
number one,
18:41
S… Speaker 5 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
we all know I have a soft placement heart for history and history teachers,
18:44
S… Speaker 7 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
but...
18:45
S… Speaker 5 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
That required her to fundamentally redesign the assessment slash measurement.
18:49
S… Speaker 4 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
I mean,
18:50
S… Speaker 5 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
one of the biggest challenges we come up with in people analytics is,
18:53
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
well,
18:54
S… Speaker 5 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
these are the data that are easy to access,
18:56
S… Speaker 5 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
so that's what we're going to use,
18:57
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
right?
18:58
S… Speaker 5 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
So the multiple choice is easy to access,
19:01
S… Speaker 5 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
so that's what I'm going to use.
19:02
S… Speaker 5 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
Looking at every single one of those videos for every one of those groups,
19:06
S… Speaker 5 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
not so easy to...
19:08
S… Speaker 5 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
grade quickly,
19:09
S… Speaker 1 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
right?
19:09
S… Speaker 5 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
And so that's a different investment in measurement,
19:12
S… Speaker 5 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
different measurement approach,
19:13
S… Speaker 2 (Cap H_2026 MegaTrends_V1)
et cetera, et cetera.

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