Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War

0:00

S… Speaker 3 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

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0:29

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

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0:55

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

It's all part of The Wire's mission to understand and explain the biggest story of our time, China's economic rise and its influence on the world. You can find The Wire China podcast on all major streaming platforms or via its website at thewirechina.com. China can often seem distant and opaque. Sinification is an outstanding resource that makes it more intelligible.

1:26

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

Its weekly newsletter brings readers inside the debates taking place within China, translating and explaining what Chinese thinkers and policy analysts are saying and why it matters. Signification has become essential reading for many who follow China most closely.

1:46

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

It is trusted by serious China watchers, but it is written for anyone seeking a more grounded understanding of the country. It is free to read, with no paywall, at cinefication.org. Welcome to Face Off. I'm Jane Perlez, back for our final episode of Season 3. And before we kick things off, I'm going to ask you a favour. We've got a listener survey. Thanks to everyone who filled it out.

2:15

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

And if you haven't, it's not too late. Just go to bit.ly slash faceoffsurvey. That's bit.ly slash faceoffsurvey. Now, on to the show. As this episode is published, it's far from clear which direction the war between the U.S. and Iran is headed.

2:49

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

Even so, America's reputation around the world is in decline, to say the least. Trump is unrestrained. He's invaded Venezuela, started a war like no other with Iran, soured relations with traditional US allies in Europe, and not to mention imposing heavy tariffs across the globe. Trump and Xi Jinping are supposed to meet in a delayed summit in Beijing this spring. What is Beijing thinking?

3:19

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

How might China capitalize on this very rocky moment? With so much at stake, I wanted to turn to someone who has often been at the forefront of diplomacy. So today on the show, a repeat special guest, the former U.S. ambassador to China under President Biden, Nicholas Burns.

3:41

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

Our conversation was recorded on April 10th, which is important to note as the news is moving fast, very fast. We started by talking about the Iran war and what this means for U.S.-China relations. I think this is a mixed bag for China, to be honest. On the one hand, you cannot escape the fact, the Chinese cannot escape the fact that...

4:10

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

as the United States went into Venezuela in early January of this year, as the United States did enormous damage to Iran's nuclear and conventional forces during this long war, that's been a setback for China. China was allied with both of them. China was, in essence, almost the protector of both of them. And so China has been seen, in a way,

4:36

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

as a paper tiger when it comes to both Venezuela and Iran. I never expected that China would intervene in any way, but I certainly felt that they might be more active diplomatically in support of both the Maduro regime and Iran. That did not happen. You know that when the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed on the first day of the war,

5:00

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

Putin of Russia put out an immediate condolence letter publicly of mourning for the Supreme Leader. China did not do that. So that's one point. But I think you're right that the Chinese have gone to great lengths.

5:16

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

to portray themselves as the stable, responsible protector of global stability of the UN order. And, you know, there's been a tremendous effort by the government of China working on Weibo and WeChat in CGTN and CCTV to portray the United States as an out-of-control predator.

5:37

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

in the international system and to portray President Xi Jinping in particular and the Chinese leadership to be the protector of that order. So they clearly are trying to score points off of the United States. And the remaining question, Jane, that I don't know if you and I know the answer, has China...

5:57

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

been continuing to provide support for Iran during the war. And I don't know, I'm a private citizen, but I read in the press that the Chinese are trying to do that, as are the Russians. And so if you're in the White House or the State Department or Defense Department of Washington, you've got to remember that.

6:14

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

China's not a friend of the United States. It's a competitor. It continues to compete with the United States. I've been wondering about that. I've been wondering if China, I haven't seen much about this, but I've been wondering if China has been providing Iran with spare parts for its drones, much as we know that China has been doing that for Russia in its war against Ukraine. Do you know anything about that? I know what I read in the press, and I know what you know.

6:43

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

But it's pretty clear, it's very clear that the Chinese have been helping the Russians for several years now with dual-use microelectronics support, which is critical for the Russian defense industrial base. There's no question. And there are lots of rumors in the press that both Russia and China continue in some ways to help Iran. So, you know, I understand the urge in Washington and the Trump administration to have a more stable relationship with China. We can get to that.

7:11

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

But I think we have to remember China's not on our side. Definitely not. China does not want the United States military to emerge from this conflict, clearly the superior foe, army, which leads to maybe another reflection as we think through this, Jane, and that is if you're sitting in Moscow and Beijing, you've just seen the United States military and the Israeli military.

7:40

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

perform extraordinarily well in terms of the severe damage done to Iran's air force, its navy, its military industrial complex, in a way that certainly at this point, neither the Russian army nor the PLA could undertake far from the borders of either country.

8:04

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

And not to mention the daring rescue of the American airmen. I mean, no matter what they think of the United States, that's got to have impressed the militaries in Beijing. I think, you know, I'm just so proud as an American of our military and that rescue of the two downed airmen in the first part of April.

8:25

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

was extraordinary. And the degree to which the United States will not leave its troops behind, we have just seen the, whatever you think of this war, we've seen the United States military at its best, probably the most highly functioning part of the U.S. government. Maybe...

8:40

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

the institution in American society that is most revered by the American public. And so if you're thinking mid to long term in Moscow and Beijing, you've now seen a demonstration that the United States military is a force to be reckoned with. And that is not a bad thing from an American point of view for the Chinese and Russians to be aware of. Let's pivot a little bit and talk about Trump's reputation inside China.

9:09

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

At the elite level, we hear that Chinese officials think he is actually a bonanza for China, leading the US to a faster decline than they could probably have dreamed of, not only because of the war, but because of other such things as cutting funding for scientific research, leaving China a path to become, perhaps, the world's leader in science. Beijing says publicly that the US is in decline.

9:35

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

Is that what Beijing really thinks, especially given what you just had to say about the American military? I think I found in my three-plus years in China that the leadership was sometimes too smug about their power going forward relative to that of the United States going forward in the next decade or so.

10:00

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

You do still hear this phrase from Xi Jinping and other Chinese leaders, the East is rising, the West is falling. I heard it during the Biden years at a time when the United States was building up its alliances in the Indo-Pacific with Japan and South Korea and the Philippines and your country or native country, Australia.

10:22

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

This big strategic partnership with India, I think that really worried the Chinese. But it was interesting. I still heard they maybe looked at our political dysfunction. They don't always understand our democracy well. Who does? Well, we try here at home. But even sophisticated Chinese diplomats who've served in the United States for a number of years, they come from a completely different system and culture. I sometimes felt that they profoundly misunderstood.

10:49

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

how American society functions, how our government functions. So on the one hand, I think the Chinese would be badly mistaken to think that somehow the United States was yesterday's story and that we're a paper tiger because we clearly are not. I also think that President Trump seemed to have a good relationship with President Xi Jinping during President Trump's first term in office. And, you know, President Trump...

11:16

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

I mean, just looking at how he operates, he's entirely unpredictable. And he can be very tough.

11:24

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

Or he can be accommodating. I think maybe, I'm not sure he's practicing this consciously to put the Chinese off balance, but I think the Chinese are kind of put off balance by him. Right. Because they don't know what's going to happen next. Right. And they don't like that. They don't like to be put off balance. They do not. Because it's a one-man party. It's a tightly controlled party. They prize certainty and clarity. And so Trump...

11:50

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

President Trump keeping them off balance from an American perspective, I think is not a bad thing to do. Now, having said all that, I think your basic thesis, if you look at this objectively, President Trump has weakened.

12:05

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

our alliances both with NATO and Europe, but also some of our Indo-Pacific alliances. He's been highly critical of Japan and South Korea for not having gone into the war with us in the Strait of Hormuz. He's been, I think, insufficiently supportive of Prime Minister Sunai Takeuchi as the Chinese try to intimidate her. He has launched this tariff, Wild West tariff campaign, which is unsettled.

12:32

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

our allies and partners. And he's cut research and development funding for our major research universities. And the Chinese look at all that and they say, well, here's our opportunity to make some advances on American power. But they seem to be fairly cautious in how they're going to use that opportunity.

12:50

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

The Chinese obviously are very focused on these meetings that are planned between President Trump and President Xi Jinping in 2026. And so I don't think they want to do or say anything that will upset the apple cart. But, you know, that's also true of the United States.

13:08

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

The word is out in Washington, inside the Trump administration, that no department of the government should do anything that would anger the Chinese government ahead of this big meeting. And obviously, summits are terribly important because in the Chinese system, Xi Jinping's number one leader, if you want to get anything done with China, you have to meet with him. So I actually think, as you and I have talked before, it's a good thing that President Trump is going to meet with Xi Jinping. The question is,

13:37

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

What are they going to get done or not get done at the table? We'll come to that. I have one more thing I'd like to mention about Trump and China writ large, or China domestically, actually. I hear that among liberal Chinese who admire America's democracy, that there's now a special anger towards Trump and, by connection, the United States in a way. They believe that Trump's...

14:05

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

off-the-chart actions and language confirm what China's official media has been saying, that the U.S. is a hegemon that behaves beyond the rules, that Trump is confirming the Chinese official line, which liberal Chinese don't really believe. What are you hearing from Chinese who have admired the U.S. in the past? This is a really important question, Jane.

14:31

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

I'm worried about this aspect of American power, our reputation in the world, our credibility in the world. When President Trump threatened to invade Greenland, when he did invade Venezuela and take down the leader and imprison him, when he's threatened to invade, or as he said in his language, take Cuba, and now in the prosecution of the Iran war,

15:00

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

The president making statements that no other American president in our history, 240-odd years, has ever made. I'm going to bomb them back to the Stone Ages. I'm going to destroy their civilization. People take these words seriously around the world, and they've dramatically undercut our reputation.

15:23

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

and our credibility, contrast it with the very careful language of Franklin Delano Roosevelt on D-Day, for instance, that we're not here.

15:34

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

to conquest, to make a conquest. In fact, we're here to liberate against the person, Hitler, who had tried to take over all of Europe. And so the Chinese have been able, in their Olympian-sized propaganda machine in Beijing, to broadcast the message explicitly and implicitly, this is a rogue, predator, hegemon, superpower, the United States, and we, China.

16:01

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

are the guardian of sanity, order, and predictability in the world. And that's, you know, you and I know China well. We know what the Chinese government does in the world. This is highly hypocritical, but at least in the short term, they appear to be making a case that is persuasive, unfortunately, to many people around the world, that we are the great problem. We, the United States, and the world. I'm glad you mentioned...

16:26

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

this because I was just going to ask you, China has been doing some interesting things while the American attention is focused on the Middle East. They've been doing some things in their own neighborhood, which if the United States was paying attention to Asia Pacific, they might take some issue with, but there's not been a word about it. And that's the new artificial island that China is building in the South China Sea, complete with sophisticated military installations on it.

16:54

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

It's called, I believe it's called the Antelope Island. It is called Antelope Island. My students and I looked at it on the map this week. You know, 10 years ago, the International Court in The Hague ruled that such islands are illegal.

17:10

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

Should the United States challenge China on this? Does the United States even have the will to do so? What are we going to do about this? We should challenge China. But why don't we? If I have to say, even the Biden administration didn't do so, or the Obama administration, I have to say. The Obama administration did not challenge China on this. The Biden administration did.

17:32

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

Spratly Islands of the South China Sea, in the Paracels, as well as in the Sukaku Islands, Dayu Islands, of the East China Sea, we routinely and regularly protested what the Chinese have done, which is to colonize vast swaths of the South China Sea in contravention of the UN Law of the Sea Conference, the relative international law. They've taken land in water and atolls and reefs from the Philippines, from Malaysia.

18:00

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

from Brunei, from Vietnam. And at three different points in the summer of 2024, when the PLA Navy and their militarized Coast Guard were ramming Filipino ships on Filipino territory, we stood up for the Philippines under our mutual defense agreement. So you haven't heard that from President Trump.

18:21

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

or from Secretary Rubio. There's this quiet over Washington as they wait for this meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping. We're pulling a lot of punches right now. We're not taking on the Chinese, even rhetorically. I think it's a great mistake. You know, you can try to have a stable, in some ways, cooperative relationship with China. At the same time, however, you can call a spade a spade. The Chinese do it every day. They are out today.

18:49

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

And they'll be out tomorrow criticizing us. But for some reason, we've gone silent on human rights abuses in China, on this aggressiveness of the PLA and the South and East China Seas. And I think it's a great mistake to think that if you tell the truth...

19:06

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

you're somehow going to put your relationship with China in jeopardy. They don't practice that, and we should be clear about our differences. Let's look at another hotspot. Do you think China will take advantage of Washington's fixation on the Middle East and move more heavily against Taiwan? What kinds of moves do you think China might make against Taiwan in the current situation? Well, I think in the short term, you've seen that the new leader of the KMT,

19:35

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

She even asked Xi Jinping to come by Taiwan and have a look to see what's going on. I couldn't believe it. And nothing like that has happened since 1948, 49. I think the Chinese now perceive, if you look ahead to the 2028 elections in Taiwan, a vulnerability of the ruling party, the DPP, maybe a strengthening, possibly, of the...

20:01

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

a leader in the KMT who's quite willing to talk to Xi Jinping and the Chinese party leadership. And, you know, the easiest thing would be to just disrupt and weaken Taiwan from within. And that may well be the first impulse of Xi Jinping right now. To actually launch an invasion, it's about the hardest thing to do in military maneuvering, or invade Taiwan, I should say.

20:28

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

over 100 miles of open water in terrain that does not favor the attacker.

20:34

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

the Taiwanese having learned from the Ukrainians how to practice asymmetric warfare, repel an invader. And so I'm not sure that's the first impulse, especially after these massive purges of the PLA leadership. Xi Jinping does not have experienced people in power. He's a careful, rational leader. I don't see a high probability at all of an invasion, but certainly Xi Jinping said,

21:02

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

to the KMT leader 10 days or so when they were together in Beijing. It is inevitable, he said.

21:10

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

that Taiwan will come back under the control of mainland China. He's feeling, I think, more confident. And he has, unfortunately. He's able now to point to the United States. Well, they invaded Venezuela. Correct. They threatened to invade Cuba. They threatened to invade a NATO ally, Greenland. And they invaded and launched a major war against Iran. So we've taken away the moral high ground. We've lost the moral high ground.

21:38

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

And Xi Jinping is claiming, oddly and weirdly enough, the moral high ground. I'm the responsible leader in the world these days. That's what I mean. He's positioning himself as the good guy. He is. And, you know, I'll just, I won't, you'll have to say whether you agree with this or not.

21:56

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

That is miles from the truth given the aggressiveness of China in Myanmar, South China Sea, East China Sea, Yellow Sea, Himalayan border with India. It's outright competition with the U.S. and Japan for military supremacy in the Indo-Pacific. This is not a peace-loving country, the People's Republic of China, but they're acting like they are now.

22:19

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

Because they're looking at us. They've been given a huge contrast. Exactly. They've been given an open window, if you like. And another area where China could take advantage of what the U.S. has done in the Middle East would be to make overtures to Europe, where U.S. allies are really angry at Washington. But given China is helping Russia and Ukraine, would Europe be receptive to overtures from China?

22:47

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

very critical military support for Russia in the war in Ukraine. I don't think the Chinese will be successful in somehow dividing the European nations from the United States because for Europe, and this is a correct assumption, Ukraine is an existential event. If Russia gets away with its crimes in Ukraine, if it emerges as the victor in the war, I hope it doesn't, that's going to be a catastrophic event.

23:13

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

for Germany and Italy and Spain and France and the other allies. Just on morale. On morale, but also just in terms of why would Putin, who invaded Georgia in 2008, who invaded Crimea in 2014, Ukraine in 2022... Why would he stop? Why would he stop? Because you have Latvia and Estonia, both with a sizable minority of Russian ethnics in their countries. You have Romania, you have Poland. I think there's a real fear in Europe.

23:42

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

if Putin emerges the winner in this war. So I don't think the Europeans are going to normalize their relationship with China, which is the major provider of military support for Russia. But I do think they'll try to pick off some countries one by one. So I noted that the Spanish foreign minister is going to be going to Beijing. And that maybe is the country that is most reachable, if you will, for the Chinese.

24:09

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

But the Chinese may go into Europe with economic offerings. Well, they do. And, you know, before the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, there was a big investment treaty between the European Union and China that was nearly concluded that Europeans pulled it off the table once Putin invaded. And once China, Putin and Xi Jinping said they had a partnership for life. Right. You remember that from February of 2022. You know, Trump's been threatening to pull the U.S. out of NATO.

24:39

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

This must be China's wildest dream. What would the dissolution of NATO mean for China? Well, you know, it would mean a clear strategic defeat for the United States. And I mean strategic. I'm a former ambassador to NATO. I was at NATO as ambassador on September 11, 2001. And we were hit very, very hard.

25:00

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

The Allies, within three hours of the attack, I had my first call with a Canadian ambassador, David Wright. He said, we're with you, and we should all invoke Article 5 and defend you. They all went into Afghanistan. What has with us, what has worried the Chinese strategically when it comes to the United States is the fact that while they have 14 neighbors, they have border disputes with men, the great majority of them, no one would come to Chinese.

25:28

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

China's defense immediately in the event of a 9-11 against China. And the Chinese have seen both in NATO, but also in our East Asia allied system with Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Thailand, Australia, our security arrangements with New Zealand, with India, with Malaysia, with Singapore. The Chinese understand that our greatest advantage is that we have allies and they don't. So if President Trump

25:58

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

tries to take us out of NATO, it will be simply a gift to both Russia and China. It will be an extremely unwise, I would say almost catastrophic mistake by a modern American president. Here's the silver lining. He won't get away with it, President Trump, if he tries, because the Senate will block it. The Senate would have to vote by two-thirds majority. There isn't anything close to that in the Republican or Democratic Party. And the American people like NATO, despite President Trump's

26:28

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

best efforts to... His vendetta against it almost. ...to savage NATO over the last couple of months. And let me just say this, Jane. I mean, the idea that somehow it's NATO's fault that the Strait of Hormuz is closed...

26:41

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

President Trump did not inform the NATO allies that there was going to be a war. He did not ask for NATO participation formally in the war. NATO is a defensive alliance. On 9-11, we were attacked. This is the opposite situation. We've attacked a third country. And all of our allies are democracies. They have public opinion. They have press. They have parliaments.

27:03

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

This is a supremely unpopular war in Europe because it made life difficult for Europe, much more dependent on oil from the Gulf of the Strait, excuse me, than the United States is. And so the idea that when we got into trouble in the Strait of Hormuz, Europe had to go into combat and bail us out, it's just not serious. But it's done enormous harm. But the president will not succeed in destroying our alliance with NATO. Hope not.

27:29

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

So let's turn to the domestic situation in China. The economy is not in great shape. Chinese people I know sound almost in despair about the future economic outlook. I know this sounds a little crazy to ask, but do you think this disquiet on the economy can affect Xi Jinping's grip on power? You know, I'm not living there anymore.

27:52

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

So I don't have the feel for China that I had when I was living in Beijing and traveling throughout the country. I guess I'd say this. Yes, China is facing serious economic problems. Its GDP growth rate is clearly not at 5%, won't be this year, wasn't the last few years. The residue of the property crisis has been a profound depressant on economic growth, and I think even the psychology.

28:18

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

of a lot of Chinese who have most of their wealth in apartments in the big cities. Youth unemployment, they don't even give accurate numbers anymore because so many young people, especially, frankly, university-educated, highly qualified young people can't find jobs. There's a problem of the deflationary spiral that is depressing economic growth. So all that's true. But on the other hand...

28:43

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

China's a leading manufacturer and exporter in the world. China's, I think, 33% of all manufacturing globally is by China. That number could grow to 40%. They are dominating.

28:56

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

the renewable energy, electric vehicle, supply chain, the batteries, lithium batteries, and so forth, globally. So it's not a country without enormous economic strength. I don't think China is in danger of economic collapse. The problems are, of course, serious, but not so serious that I think it would affect the grip.

29:18

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

as you put it, that Xi Jinping has on power. I think the party is very strong and he's in a strong position as ruler. It's interesting you mentioned China's industrial strength. That brings us to the question of...

29:32

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

The U.S. needing to re-industrialize and this idea that Chinese manufacturing companies be allowed to invest in the U.S. to help with the re-industrialization here. And for example, as you know, the Ford is doing licensing deals with one of China's major... CATL. CATL, one of China's major battery companies. There's opposition in Congress on the grounds this is a national security risk, but American business...

30:00

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

Executives argue the risks are not that great and can be dealt with. Where do you stand on this? I think if you had asked any of us in the Biden administration and members of Congress from both parties during the Biden administration, the answer would have been no. The answer would have been, well, we want to keep trading with China. We have a big relationship. China's been our third largest trade partner for the last number of years. We do not want to see Chinese investments.

30:28

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

in our major industries in the United States, particularly those that are important for our national security. And we've, of course, famously and I think correctly prohibited the export of very sensitive American advanced semiconductors for AI purposes into the Chinese market. We don't want to give the PLA a leg up.

30:45

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

to compete with our military. Now, what's changed is this. It's interesting. I don't think sentiment in Congress has changed much. I've been up on the Hill in the last couple of months, Capitol Hill, talking to Republicans and Democrats, House and Senate. There's still a very hawkish attitude towards China on Capitol Hill. I think in many parts of the Trump administration.

31:09

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

you'll find hawks throughout the China hawks. And that's not a derisive term. I consider myself a China hawk. But there's one person...

31:17

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

in the Trump administration, who is not a China hawk, the president, Donald Trump. He is looking, I think, for almost a detente with China. He wants to relax the tensions, and I think he wants to open up the economic relationship. So that might mean, who knows, that the Trump administration might end up not objecting to forward working with CATL and greater Chinese investment in our economy. I don't quite understand why Chinese...

31:44

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

investment by CATL is so monumentally so much of a problem. I think we have to be reasonable exactly. I think it seems unreasonable to, you know, our car industry is not in great shape. Why not allow these people to come in and revitalize the car industry? I think the argument...

32:03

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

that you could make, and I'm sure I know that Ford is making, and many others are making in our industries, is that, look, in an area that's not critical for our national security, if we can learn from the Chinese how to be competitive on an area, such an important area as electric vehicles and battery technology, that's in the mid to long term really good and important for the United States, and we shouldn't.

32:30

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

look away from those types of Chinese investments. I think that the other way of looking at this is to say each of these investment issues has to be cited on a case-by-case basis. There are times that we wouldn't want right now. Let me give you an example. We wouldn't want Chinese companies to be outwardly investing in artificial general intelligence companies in the United States. Of course not. That's totally different from the car industry, which is basic industry. You have to draw the line.

32:59

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

And I think, you know, you're right that there are some investments that in the prior administration, the one I served in very proudly, we in the Congress would have looked askance. And I think we're heading towards a time where we've got to be a little bit more open to both trade and investment with China when it doesn't harm our national security. So assume this summit goes ahead.

33:24

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

Although a friend of mine, someone we know well who knows China well, says, I wouldn't buy a non-refundable ticket to Beijing if I was planning to attend the summit on May 15th. But assuming it goes ahead, do you think Trump is interested in saying yes to one of...

33:47

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

Xi Jinping's long harbored ideas, which is that the United States and China should join together in what he called a G2 and basically form a condominium that would informally rule the world? It's a terrible idea. It would run against American strategic interests. Our power in the Indo-Pacific is with our democratic allies, particularly Japan and the Philippines and Australia.

34:17

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

our strategic relationship with India, our relationship with the EU and NATO. Those are countries that share our values and outlook on the world. And for the United States and China to try to set themselves up...

34:30

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

as rulers of the world, would redound very definitely against the United States. We'd lose the allegiance of our best friends. I hope that President Trump has not been serious. He's been floating this idea. It is not in the best interest of our country. It's very interesting because Xi Jinping, when he first came to the United States as president, went to Sunnylands and met informally with President Obama. And I always love this story at that meeting.

35:01

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

President Obama was very gracious at the opening cocktail party and said to President Xi Jinping, what would you like to drink? And Xi Jinping, being very polite, said, oh, whatever you're having. And the waiter brought up the largest martini you've ever seen in your life. I'm not sure what Xi Jinping did with it. But in any event, Xi Jinping at that summit...

35:23

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

or that informal meeting, floated this G2 idea, and I think it was swatted down pretty quickly by Obama. And it ought to be by us. You know, what are we about as the United States, as we live in the world?

35:36

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

We want to support human freedom. We want to support democracies. We certainly don't want to have a strategic relationship with the largest violator of human rights in the world, and that's China, a country that is trying to overtake us strategically. If we set up the G2, it would be like letting the fox into the hen yard. The Chinese would be simultaneously trying to undercut us at every turn. It's a very bad idea.

36:04

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

On that note, Ambassador Burns, thank you. It's always great to talk. Thank you, Jane. Pleasure to be with you on Face Off. Nicholas Burns was a U.S. ambassador to China under President Biden. Thank you for listening to this episode of Face Off. We want to hear from you. We've got a listener survey that will take less than a minute to fill out. I promise, less than a minute. It's easy. Just go to bit.ly forward slash Face Off survey.

36:39

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

That's B-I-T dot L-Y slash faceoff survey. And tell us what you think. We'll also put a link in our show notes. Thank you so much. And that's a wrap for season three. We'll be back with more interviews and deep analysis. See you soon.

37:04

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

This project is made possible by the generous support of the Carnegie Corporation, and it's produced in partnership with Rohome Productions. Face Off is hosted and reported by me, Jane Perlez. Special guest, Rana Mitter, Professor of U.S.-Asia Relations at Harvard Kennedy School. Our production team is Alex Lewis, Nina Puzuki, and Frank Zhou. Sound design and mixing by John Myers. Original score by Alex Lewis.

37:34

S… Speaker 2 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

Show art by Good Tape Studio. Special thanks to Charlotte Cooper, Tink Media, and Paul Bogards. Special thanks also to the Belfer Center at the Harvard Kennedy School for their support.

38:01

S… Speaker 1 (Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War)

From the director of Bohemian Rhapsody and the Usual Suspects comes Monument. It's 1999. Israel's occupation of southern Lebanon is reaching its breaking point. A renowned architect is challenged by his son to imagine a memorial for every victim of war. As violence escalates, father and son clash over loyalty, art, and peace. Starring Joe Mazzello and Academy Award winner John Voight. Monument, now playing at the Angelica in D.C. and Fairfax. Get tickets at monument.film.

Face-Off_ The U.S. vs China-13-Trump’s War, Xi’s Opportunity_ Ambassador Nicholas Burns on Iran’s Hot War

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