8143876440273624617

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

Hello, hope you are doing well.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

So I just got back from the US from the World Cup Norway

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S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

141,

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

so I'm super happy But today I wanted to talk a bit about a strategy

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

I was thinking a lot about and I've been testing while I was traveling

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

So I thought I can just kind of go through this strategy today And this is

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

a strategy that is very good if you want to implement kind of Yeah,

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

you can call it agentic AI or something because it's really nice to have

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

any kind of smart model to help you figure out the details

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

of this strategy.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

But the fundamentals is quite simple,

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

I would say.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

But it's a bit of a different strategy when you kind of think about polymarket that

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S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

we are looking at today.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

Because on polymarket,

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

you're usually thinking about being on the taker side.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

You want to place a bet,

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

right? But we are going to do something a bit different today that I kind of

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

want to show you that I have some great success with over the last few

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

Weeks maybe, or months I guess.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

So I just want to walk through kind of how I set this up and

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

what you kind of need to get going If you want to start looking at

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

this strategy and of course this is nothing to do with financial advice or

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

anything like that This is just a strategy I've been testing and having some luck

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

with so basically how this strategy work is that we are looking for

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

some Expected value right because on each trade here.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

We want to avoid a few things

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

On the maker side,

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

we can call it maker side.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

We want to use that to avoid the fees that

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

we pay on Polymarket,

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

right? Because we need,

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

if we just do the taker side,

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

we always pay some fees to Polymarket and that gets kind of expensive

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

over time.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

Another thing we want to avoid is slippage.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

If you don't know why that is,

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

let's say you place a trade here on like,

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S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

I don't know,

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

let's say you place a trade here on like 40.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

Something like that and you want to do a trade on like the price 40 .0,

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

right?

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

But there's a lot of people in queue and you don't have the perfect latency.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

And you get filled at something like 0 .42

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

cents instead of the 40 you asked for.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

Because maybe you use some fill any price you get.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

That means that you're kind of two cents down already.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

And you get the fee on top of that.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

And that means that you kind of lost if you have like a small edge you were looking for.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

So this is what I want to avoid with...

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

This setup we're gonna look at today.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

I want to avoid paying fees if possible and I want to avoid the

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

slippage So how can we actually do that on polymarket?

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

So like I said,

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

we can't really be on the taker side of this.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

We need to kind of be on the maker side I can just pull that

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

up if you want to so you can see polymarket has something called market making so

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

a market maker on polymarket is a trader who provides liquidity to

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

precision markets by continuing posting bids and ask orders So

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

we are not exactly gonna do like pure market making on this,

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

but we want to take advantage of that mechanic So I'm

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

gonna try to explain how I did this with like a simple setup here and

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

How you can try to do that too,

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

but there is a big caveat I'm gonna talk about That you need

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

to figure out and that is something that AI is really good at helping you with

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

So the idea here is basically We

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

need to find something that is called that is

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

called a fair value price And this is what I've been using AI to

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

help me calculate by collecting tons of data I'm gonna talk

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

a bit more how much data I did collect to kind of hone in

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

on finding the perfect fair value price for my model But

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

let's say we have the fair value price

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

And what we can do then is try to leverage that

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

by just let's say the price on Polymarket now

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

is 55 cents for upright.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

So that means that the market think is a 55 % chance

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

that in this window we will kind of end up on

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

up.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

So this is we're talking about kind of the

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

BTC market in this example five minute up and

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

down So we're just gonna see if the Bitcoin price kind of ends on

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

up in the five minute window before or down Regarding

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

to the previous price in the last window,

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

right? So let's say that on the on the poly market the value is

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

55 % chance of ending at up at

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

An X kind of amount of time left of the window,

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

right?

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

But our model that we created with AI says that the fair value

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

should rather be something like,

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

let's say 0 .51.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

So we,

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

our fair value is 51 % chance of ending upright.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

And that means that we...

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

We want to adjust this according to our price.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

So this is what we think is the true price,

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

not the market price.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

And we want to try to take advantage of that by placing some

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

resting orders.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

My AI model,

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

after looking at all my data,

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

looked at it and it said that we need to have...

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

four cent spread to be positive after

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

looking at all my data and let's say our AI model kind of finds out

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

now that the fair value price for this setup on the BTC

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

five minute up and down market is 0 .51

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

but like I said on the polymarket the price is 5 .5 so

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

we are not interested in looking at kind of the market price we want us check

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

always compare it to our fair value price

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

And like I said, we have kind of hard coded that we only want to look at

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

things that has a four cent discount.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

And that is calculated from our fair value price.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

So let's say we want to buy an up share in this

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

market now.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

What does that mean?

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

Of course,

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

we want to look downwards at the price.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

So we are only interested in buying upside.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

That is only gonna be for 47,

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

right?

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

So we're gonna place our resting order bid at 47.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

So the idea here that we always want to swap

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

this or switch this.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

So let's say our fair value price moves down to 45.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

Then we want to set our resting order to 41,

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

right?

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

So we always want to adjust this and this is what our model is doing.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

So we want to buy up at 47.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

This is

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

Of course, like a big difference to the market value.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

But what happens sometimes is that we get these impatient traders.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

So they really want to sell.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

And if they can't really get the price,

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

they just want to dump it.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

And we are kind of on the book with a 47 here,

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

ready to capture on that edge here,

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

right? So if someone really wants to get out,

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

they could sell to us for 47.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

And we get the discount.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

And that is on the upside.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

If you kind of think if we want to buy on the downside.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

We just do like a simple calculation like the fair value is 51.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

We do like 1 minus I guess 51.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

That is 49 and minus 4.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

So that is going to be 45 right.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

So that means that if we want to buy the down share.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

We are only looking to buy it for 45

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

or less right.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

So this is basically the strategy I've been testing out So

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

I only want to buy at a discount because that means that we have the

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

That plus expected value kind of baked

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

into these prices,

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

right? Because over time if we always have the

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

four cent discount

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

It doesn't really matter if the market resolves up or down if we

8:08

S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

always buy our shares at

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

a discount.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

But this is where it kind of gets interesting because this

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

means that this thing,

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

the fair value price,

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

right?

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

Has to be almost perfect if we're gonna if this

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

is gonna work and that is what I've been using AI to help me figure out

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

So that is the big hurdle here You got to collect like a tons

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

of data to kind of get this fair value price calculation correct

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

So it doesn't really matter if I talk about this strategy because if

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

you don't find a good way to calculate your fair value price

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

Yeah, this is not gonna work.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

So that is what you need kind of to collect all the data from So

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

I kind of want to show you how much data I collected before I kind of set my

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

model to trust this price

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

So here you can see what I collected.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

I collected for the five minute up and down,

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

fair value model we analyzed,

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

144 000 graded fair value snapshots,

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

2000 resolved markets,

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

170 hours of live market data,

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

so basically seven days or something.

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

And you can see yeah,

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

this is a piece of grinding slowly over time We have done 32

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

wins, but this was also early data So the late part

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

of the model has been a bit stronger but a bit a

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

bit more less frequent But we are up like almost $70 and

9:40

S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

this is just been running like fully autonomous So what we did

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

on when I kind of got back from From the US now we

9:49

S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

have adjusted the gap

9:50

S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

So now we are a bit less frequent and hopefully that means

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S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

that our kind of sharp ratio will be a bit more

10:00

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

steady instead of having all these spikes.

10:02

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

I also looked at the 15 -minute market data.

10:06

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

I'm going to come back to that in a future video how that is looking.

10:10

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

But basically what you need to do is collect a lot of data

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S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

if you want this to work.

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S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

So that is kind of the big hurdle.

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S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

But what is good is that you can use like codecs,

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S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

cloud code,

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S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

open code,

10:23

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

GLM, 4 .5 .2 or something to help you collect this data via

10:27

S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

the API.

10:28

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

So it just takes time.

10:29

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

So everyone can do this.

10:31

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

But of course,

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S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

like I said, this is nothing to do with financial advice.

10:35

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

This is just what I've been testing out.

10:37

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

So hopefully this was understandable.

10:40

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

I don't really know how to...

10:43

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

I guess I can mention that we are not kind of trying to participate in

10:47

S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

the...

10:48

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

The market maker rewards or rebates program at

10:52

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

this with this strategy We are not looking to get any of that pool if you know what

10:56

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

that is We are only kind of looking to avoid the fees

11:00

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

and the slippage part when we are doing the on

11:05

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

the taker side So after playing around with this for months I

11:09

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

figured out that this is the way to go for me at least but of course there

11:13

S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

are there are

11:15

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

There are options on the taker side too,

11:16

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

I think but this is what I'm gonna focus on going forward I think so

11:21

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

a couple of other things too I asked Codex here 5

11:25

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

.5 should we do some Monte Carlo simulations on this strategy and

11:30

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

The idea it kind of gave me here is that we can do that later not

11:34

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

now as the decision maker We just want more data first before

11:38

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

we kind of start to look into that

11:41

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

The Monte Carlo simulation could ask is 12 US dollar per quote

11:45

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

too much?

11:45

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

What drawdown should we expect?

11:47

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

How likely are we to be down after 100 fills?

11:50

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

So this is that we kind of need more data before we're gonna do

11:54

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

that But I'm definitely gonna do it in the future Another thing I asked the model is what about

11:58

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

overfitting in this case and this is of course a danger here We

12:02

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

saw that when we tried to adjust some parameters in the early

12:06

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

models early setup of this

12:09

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

but now we kind of make a 3 cent gap change after looking at the

12:13

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

seven days of data and i'm just going to keep monitoring this and see

12:17

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

what happens but this is of course a real danger with this model but

12:21

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

the nice thing is that there's not really like a big

12:26

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

It is of course a drawdown here,

12:27

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

but as long as our fair value is good,

12:31

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

and we can check that when we have enough data,

12:35

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

we are not really taking a big risk,

12:38

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

so you will not get kind of bankrupt using this strategy.

12:41

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

Like I talked about in my previous video,

12:43

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

the idea here is that this is going to be like a...

12:47

S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

Yeah, what do you call it?

12:49

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

This is kind of gonna be like a long -running AI agentic Strategy

12:53

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

like I talked about my pod setup So this is just one of the pods

12:57

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

that is just gonna run in the background and hopefully over the months it

13:01

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

has like a plus Expected value or like up in the green.

13:05

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

So it doesn't really matter if it only makes like $25

13:10

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

a week

13:11

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

Because it doesn't really cost anything to run and as long as we

13:15

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

have the data and it looks pretty good I'm just gonna keep it running.

13:19

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

So this is this is not a part of like a

13:22

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

You're not going to be a millionaire from this strategy or

13:26

S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

anything.

13:27

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

But it could be a part in a bigger plan that you have.

13:31

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

So this is why I wanted to talk about this today.

13:34

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

And like I said,

13:35

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

I didn't really go into any specific data or setups.

13:39

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

Or I didn't walk through how to set this up.

13:42

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

But I thought it was just an interesting idea that we kind

13:46

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

of came to set up by using both Fable I

13:50

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

used. I used Codex 5 .5 and probably

13:54

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

you can use some lesser models for this because the math is not really...

13:58

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

You don't need like fable to calculate this strategy,

14:01

S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

right?

14:01

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

But of course like I said in the video the fair value

14:05

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

price and Here you need a lot of data to kind of figure out

14:09

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

because the whole strategy kind of relies on this being as

14:14

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

correct as possible of course it would never be 100 % but You

14:19

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

can kind of back test and see how close you were,

14:21

S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

right?

14:22

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

So that is what is pretty interesting about this setup and like

14:26

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

I said, I'm gonna keep running this So if you want to come back in the future

14:31

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

looking at these types of videos this type of strategies

14:35

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

and See how we are doing.

14:37

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

I'm gonna do update videos in the future on this

14:40

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

So please like this video and subscribe.

14:43

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

I also did sign up to Interactive Brokers because

14:47

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

I'm going to start testing this Argentic AI on more like

14:51

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

option trading and stuff like that.

14:52

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

So if you want to follow along on that too,

14:54

S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

please tune in.

14:55

S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

So yeah,

14:57

S… Speaker 2 (8143876440273624617)

thank you for tuning in and hopefully I'll see you again soon.

15:00

S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

And yeah,

15:01

S… Speaker 1 (8143876440273624617)

bye.

8143876440273624617

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