AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1)

0:03

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

The following statement is utterly ludicrous.

0:06

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

It is also true.

0:08

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

The world's most important advanced technology is

0:13

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

nearly all produced in a single facility.

0:15

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

What's more,

0:17

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

that facility is located in one of the most geopolitically fraught areas

0:21

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

on Earth, an area in which many analysts believe that war is

0:25

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

inevitable within the decade.

0:27

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

The future of artificial intelligence hangs in the balance.

0:33

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company,

0:35

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

or TSMC,

0:37

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

makes all of the world's most advanced AI chips.

0:40

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

This includes NVIDIA's GPUs,

0:44

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Google's TPUs,

0:46

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

AMD's GPUs,

0:48

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

the AI chips from Microsoft,

0:50

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Amazon,

0:50

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Tesla,

0:51

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Cerebris,

0:53

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

SambaNova,

0:54

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

and every other credible competitor.

0:55

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Modern artificial intelligence simply would

0:59

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

not be possible without these highly specialized chips.

1:03

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Little wonder then that Time Magazine recently described TSMC

1:07

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

as, quote,

1:08

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

the world's most important company that you've probably never heard of.

1:12

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang put it more colorfully,

1:16

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

saying, quote,

1:17

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

basically there is air and TSMC.

1:20

S… Speaker 2 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

TSMC's chip

1:25

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

fabrication facilities,

1:26

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

or fabs,

1:27

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

the buildings where chips are physically built,

1:29

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

is located on the western coast of Taiwan,

1:32

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

a mere 110 miles from mainland China.

1:35

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

In this map,

1:36

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Taiwan is shown in orange and China is shown in green.

1:39

S… Speaker 2 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Today,

1:40

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

China and Taiwan are nearer to the brink of war than they

1:45

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

have been in decades.

1:46

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Many policymakers in Washington predict that China

1:50

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

will invade Taiwan within the next five years.

1:52

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

A China -Taiwan conflict would be devastating for

1:56

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

many reasons.

1:57

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Aside from the heavy human toll,

1:59

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

one underappreciated consequence is that it would paralyze

2:04

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

the global AI ecosystem.

2:06

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Put simply,

2:07

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

the entire field of artificial intelligence faces

2:11

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

an astonishingly precarious single point of failure in

2:15

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Taiwan.

2:15

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Amid all of the fervor around AI today,

2:20

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

this fact is not widely enough appreciated.

2:23

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

If you are working on or are interested in AI,

2:26

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

you need to be paying attention.

2:28

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

How did we get here,

2:31

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

and what can we do about it?

2:32

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Let's start with a brief whirlwind overview of the chip

2:36

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

industry.

2:38

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Semiconductors,

2:39

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

or chips,

2:39

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

are the most complex object in the world that humanity knows

2:43

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

how to mass produce.

2:44

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Making semiconductors requires the world's purest metals,

2:48

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

the world's most expensive machinery,

2:51

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

legions of highly specialized engineers,

2:55

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

and atom -level manufacturing precision.

2:58

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

It is important to distinguish between two different types of chip companies.

3:02

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

First,

3:03

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

fabless chip makers,

3:04

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

which design but do not manufacture their own chips.

3:08

S… Speaker 2 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

And second,

3:09

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

foundries,

3:10

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

which manufacture chips designed by other companies.

3:12

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Almost every well -known chip company today is fabulous,

3:16

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

from NVIDIA to AMD to Qualcomm.

3:19

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

These companies do not produce their own chips.

3:23

S… Speaker 2 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Instead,

3:24

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

they design chips,

3:25

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

and then they rely on foundries like TSMC to actually manufacture those chips

3:29

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

for them.

3:31

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

There are only three companies in the world today that are capable of manufacturing

3:35

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

chips anywhere near the leading edge of semiconductor technology.

3:39

S… Speaker 2 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

TSMC,

3:40

S… Speaker 2 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Samsung,

3:42

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

and Intel.

3:43

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Of those three,

3:45

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

only one can reliably produce the world's most advanced

3:49

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

AI chips,

3:50

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

including chips like Nvidia's H100 GPUs.

3:53

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

That one company is TSMC.

3:57

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

As of this morning,

3:58

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

TSMC's market capitalization was $470 billion,

4:02

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

making it the 13th largest company in the world,

4:05

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

larger than ExxonMobil,

4:07

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

JPMorgan Chase,

4:09

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

or Walmart.

4:10

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

How has TSMC become such a dominant force?

4:14

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

The short answer is that powerful economies of scale

4:18

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

exist in the world of chip fabrication,

4:20

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

leading inexorably to winner -take -all dynamics.

4:24

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Making advanced semiconductors requires tremendous upfront and

4:29

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

ongoing capital expenditure.

4:30

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

In 2021,

4:32

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

TSMC announced that it would invest $100 billion over

4:37

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

the next three years to continue expanding its fabrication capabilities.

4:40

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

No other company in the world can justify that

4:44

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

level of investment.

4:45

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

TSMC can because of the sheer volume of chips that it produces,

4:49

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

far more than any other company in the world.

4:52

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

A related dynamic that helps explain TSMC's unassailable

4:56

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

position is what has come to be known as the TSMC

5:00

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Grand Alliance.

5:01

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

TSMC has invested heavily over decades to

5:05

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

develop deep partnerships with dozens of companies across the semiconductor supply

5:09

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

chain, from software providers like Cadence,

5:12

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

to equipment manufacturers like ASML,

5:15

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

to chip designers like NVIDIA.

5:17

S… Speaker 2 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

In turn,

5:19

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

these companies have developed their own products in accordance with TSMC's

5:23

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

roadmap, leading to powerful lock -in.

5:26

S… Speaker 2 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

In summary,

5:28

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

a combination of economies of scale,

5:31

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

network effects,

5:32

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

and unrivaled specialization have made TSMC

5:36

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

irreplaceable and have made the entire world deeply precariously

5:41

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

dependent upon it.

5:42

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

This brings us to the present delicate geopolitical

5:46

S… Speaker 2 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

moment. Last October,

5:49

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

the Biden administration took the dramatic step of

5:53

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

banning the export of all high -end AI chips to any entity

5:58

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

in China.

5:58

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

The rationale behind these measures was clear.

6:02

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

to leverage U .S.

6:04

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

control of the global semiconductor supply chain as a choke point to

6:08

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

handicap China's AI capabilities.

6:10

S… Speaker 2 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

The U .S.

6:11

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

government is currently formulating expansions to this policy.

6:14

S… Speaker 2 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

At the same time,

6:16

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

the U .S.

6:17

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

is taking steps to reduce its reliance on chip fabrication facilities

6:21

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

located in East Asia.

6:23

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

In late 2022,

6:24

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

TSMC announced that it would invest $40 billion to

6:29

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

build two new state -of -the -art fabs in the United

6:33

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

States, in Arizona.

6:35

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

The first of these two fabs is slated to begin production in

6:39

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

2025.

6:39

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Bringing advanced chip production to U .S.

6:43

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

oil will help mitigate the AI industry's absolute dependence on Taiwan

6:47

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

-based fabs.

6:48

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

But the Arizona fabs will not solve everything.

6:52

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Their production capacity will be modest,

6:53

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

representing less than 5 % of TSMC's total global output.

6:58

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

And the most advanced semiconductor production capabilities

7:02

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

and technologies will remain in Taiwan.

7:04

S… Speaker 2 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

So,

7:06

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

where might things go from here?

7:07

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Let's briefly consider a few possibilities on this three

7:11

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

-dimensional chessboard.

7:12

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Let's start with the optimistic scenario.

7:15

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Taiwan's central role in the global semiconductor industry

7:19

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

is often referred to as its silicon shield.

7:22

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

The basic theory is this.

7:24

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Because China depends so heavily on Taiwan for the chips

7:28

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

that it needs to keep its own economy running,

7:30

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

China will stop short of invading Taiwan and putting TSMC's

7:34

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

production at risk.

7:35

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

And because the rest of the world is likewise so dependent

7:40

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

on TSMC,

7:41

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

the United States and other powers will go to great lengths to protect

7:45

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

the island and defend its sovereignty.

7:47

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Under this theory,

7:48

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

while China may continue to build out its military and engage in cross -strait

7:52

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

saber -rattling,

7:53

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

it will stop short of kinetic action against Taiwan.

7:56

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

But the Silicon Shield is just a theory,

8:00

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

not a guarantee.

8:01

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

What would happen if China were to move decisively

8:05

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

to retake Taiwan?

8:06

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

TSMC's fabs would almost certainly

8:11

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

be rendered inoperative.

8:13

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

It is conceivable that the Taiwanese,

8:15

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

or even the US military,

8:17

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

would preemptively destroy the fabs in order to prevent the CCP from

8:21

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

taking control of this valuable strategic resource.

8:24

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Even if the physical buildings were to remain undamaged after a Chinese

8:28

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

invasion, it is unrealistic that the CCP would be able to continue

8:32

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

operating the fabs to produce cutting -edge chips.

8:34

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Keeping leading -edge fabs running

8:37

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

requires ongoing deep partnership with organizations

8:41

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

across the global semiconductor ecosystem,

8:43

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

as well as a steady inflow of materials,

8:46

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

equipment,

8:47

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

and services.

8:48

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

These would be denied to an invading power.

8:51

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Let me say this one more time.

8:53

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

If or when China invades Taiwan,

8:57

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

TSMC's fabs will,

9:00

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

in all likelihood,

9:01

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

go offline.

9:02

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

This will mean that no more NVIDIA H100s or any other

9:06

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

cutting -edge AI chips will be able to be produced anywhere in the world.

9:10

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

What would this mean for the world of AI?

9:13

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

After TSMC,

9:16

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

the company best positioned to step up and produce cutting -edge AI

9:20

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

chips is Samsung.

9:22

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Samsung is currently the only company in the world other than TSMC

9:26

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

that is capable of producing 3 nanometer chips,

9:29

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

today's cutting -edge technology.

9:32

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

But Samsung's production capabilities are far inferior to TSMC's

9:36

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

today. In a best -case scenario,

9:38

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

it would take Samsung years to scale up to TSMC's current

9:42

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

AI chip yields and volumes.

9:45

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

This brings us to America's former chip champion,

9:49

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Intel.

9:49

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

It was hardly a decade ago that Intel's chip manufacturing

9:53

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

capabilities were the envy of the world.

9:55

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

But in recent years,

9:57

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Intel has fallen behind.

9:59

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

The company struggled mightily in its transition to both 10 -nanometer and 7

10:04

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

-nanometer node technologies,

10:05

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

even resorting to outsourcing some of its leading -edge production

10:09

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

to TSMC.

10:10

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Under CEO Pat Gelsinger,

10:13

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Intel aspires to regain its chip -making supremacy with

10:17

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

an ambitious plan to leapfrog TSMC and begin producing 2 -nanometer

10:21

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

chips in 2024.

10:22

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Whether this ambitious plan will actually prove achievable,

10:27

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

however, remains to be seen.

10:29

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Before we despair too much,

10:31

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

let us note a couple encouraging points.

10:33

S… Speaker 2 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

First,

10:35

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

keep in mind that a considerable stock of AI chips already exists in

10:39

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

the world.

10:39

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

And even in a worst -case scenario,

10:41

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

these chips would remain in use.

10:43

S… Speaker 2 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Second,

10:45

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

while the most advanced AI chips,

10:47

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

like Google's TPUs or NVIDIA's H100s,

10:50

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

can only be manufactured in Taiwan,

10:52

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

there are many fabs around the world,

10:55

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

from the US to Europe to Israel,

10:58

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

that are capable of producing lagging -edge logic chips at scale.

11:01

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Though they are far less powerful than today's leading

11:05

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

AI chips,

11:06

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

these previous generation chips could be used in a pinch to

11:10

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

support some AI computing workloads.

11:12

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Ultimately,

11:13

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

though, it would be devastating for humanity to lose its ability to

11:18

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

produce the chips that power today's cutting -edge artificial intelligence.

11:22

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Progress in AI would be profoundly disrupted.

11:26

S… Speaker 1 (AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1))

Let us hope that diplomacy prevails.

AI’s Single Point of Failure Rob Toews TED (1)

Famintinana

Manontany ny AI momba ity dika mitovy ity